In an incumbent race where the challenger is largely unknown, conventional polling wisdom is the incumbent’s scoring on whether people think the incumbent deserves re-election is the most accurate predictor of the general election result. An incumbent in the low 40s or below is in serious trouble, but an incumbent with 50% or more is viewed as an almost certain bet to win re-election.
According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Sherrod Brown would fall in the latter, but President Obama the former. Brown is, by far, the most popular elected official in the State of Ohio as the only […]Full Story... →
In today’s Cleveland Plain Dealer, Ohio GOP Chairman Kevin DeWine states he knows the key for his party to win in Ohio next year… it’s hoping that the entire State gets collective amensia on one of Governor Kasich’s signature legislative achievements this year:
The GOP leader said he doubts anyone will be talking about Senate Bill 5 come November 2012.
“What we do know is that for 90 percent of the people, the economy is the number one issue and in November 2012 no one is going to be talking about Senate Bill 5,” DeWine said. “And Barack […]Full Story... →
In 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama won Ohio by five-points. Four years later, Ohioans are split on whether Obama deserves a second term with 46% approving and 47% disapproving. However, when it comes to the lackluster ’12 GOP Presidential field, Obama leads front-runner Mitt Romney by four points. Obama’s approval rating is 46% and his disapproval rating is 50%. So, while Ohioans equally disapprove of the job both Obama and Kasich are doing, Obama’s approval rating towers over Kasich by a difference of eleven points.
Sherrod Brown has the highest approval rating among Kasich, Portman, and Obama. With 49% approving and 30% disapproving. […]Full Story... →
Today, State Treasurer Josh Mandel reported raising $2.34 million in the three months he has totally not been a candidate for the U.S. Senate. Yes, despite a campaign website, a campaign staff, and countless press releases touting endorsements for his non-candidacy, Josh Mandel still insists that he has not decided to run the United States Senate.
Here’s another number for Mandel: $22.2 million. That’s how much under projections Ohio’s return on its investments were for the month of June according to Governor Kasich’s Director of the Office of Budget and Management (see, pg. 16). You know, the investments managed […]Full Story... →
Greg Sargent at the Washington Post’s The Plum Line blog shows that Senator Sherrod Brown has a simple response to his colleague’s in Congress: if you want to raise the retirement age to collect full benefits under Social Security or Medicare, then Members of Congress should agree that they can’t collect full retirement benefits from their time in Congress until they reach the same age.
Brown is introducing a proposal today in Congress that would enshrine this into law: It would amend the Federal retirement system to make the Social Security retirement age the point at which current and […]Full Story... →
“Josh Mandel is intentionally neglecting the job Ohioans asked him to do just a few short months ago and his claim that he’s focused on the Treasurer’s office is both laughable and insulting,” said Ohio Democratic Party press secretary Justin Barasky. “Ohio deserves a full-time Treasurer, not someone who begins planning for yet another campaign before the paint has time to dry in his new office.”
It’s pretty much been amateur hour at the Mandel campaign. As he touts his conservative bona fides by getting the endorsements of various conservative leaders, he’s cowardly avoided a visible role […]Full Story... →
Four years ago, Ohio had a Governor with a 64% approval rating (and that was among Republicans, meaning that at this point in their respective term, Republicans pretty much approved of Ted Strickland’s performance as they do of Kasich’s.) In fact, if you look at the recent PPP poll, Strickland’s performance with Republicans is actually better than Kasich’s approval rating within his own party is.
Gov. Strickland is absolutely correct that Sherrod Brown and Obama have benefitted politically from the extreme Kasich agenda as well as their support for the auto industry (which is while […]Full Story... →
Yet another poll shows that Republicans strongly favor failed ‘06 Republican Gubernatorial candidate Ken Blackwell over current State Treasurer Josh Mandel. PPP shows an even larger lead for Blackwell, who it says leads 49% to 16% in a three-way race between them and former State Senator Kevin Coughlin.
Hey, remember when Lt. Governor Mary Taylor was a rumored candidate for the U.S. Senate next year? Just for fun, PPP included her in a hypothetical matchup with the first three and Congressman Jim Jordan, who was also strongly rumored to be a potential candidate. How does Taylor do?
She comes […]Full Story... →
This morning, Quinnipiac released its data on the Presidential and Senate races in Ohio. Quinnipiac finds that Ken Blackwell has a substantial lead among GOP primary voters over State Treasurer Josh Mandel and former State Senator (Disclosure: I sued him once) Kevin Coughlin.
Blackwell also polls the best against Sherrod Brown of the three GOP candidates tested. I don’t think Ken Blackwell began this year thinking about running for the U.S. Senate, but I bet he is now that yet another poll shows him as the prohibitive GOP frontrunner. (I’m not kidding.)Full Story... →
Just because he called the bailout of GM “throwing good money after bad,” apparently, didn’t stop Governor Kasich from going up to Toledo to participate in GM’s announcement that it was adding 400 jobs there. I wonder if they served him crow for lunch?
Meanwhile, ODP takes the opportunity to attack… Ken Blackwell over his opposition to the GM bailout that the non-lawyer called potentially “illegal.” Being a Republican means never having to admit you were wrong.Full Story... →
If Josh Mandel’s math skills were anywhere close to his political ambition or self-promotion skills, he’d be a really good State Treasurer. Three months on the job and already plotting his next political campaign promotion to the United States Senate, and Josh Mandel can’t name a single noteworthy achievement in office… so, he’s taking credit for what Kasich is doing instead, with one exception.
Mandel still refuses to say publicly what his stance is on Kasich’s SB 5 or Paul Ryan’s “Let’s get rid of Medicare and throw the seniors to the private insurers” plan. Some Senate candidate.Full Story... →