Currently viewing the tag: "Polls"

Another day, another bad poll result for Mitt Romney.

Today’s edition is the new NBC-Marist poll. The group surveyed 979 likely Ohio voters by phone from September 9-11. A poll of likely voters is typically more predictive and reliable than those merely targeting registered voters, many of whom do not turn out in November.

The results are devastating for Romney. Obama leads among likely voters 50-43.

But, more importantly, the results show that voters don’t have the same warm and fuzzy feelings for the Republican candidate. Only 40 percent of voters have a favorable […]

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It’s not been a good 24 hours for John Kasich’s rebranding effort. Yesterday saw the release of a new PPP poll showing the Governor had the approval of only 61 percent of Ohio Republicans. Today, a new Quinnipiac poll is out, and the news continues to be bad.

Overall, more Ohioans disapprove of Kasich than approve of him as Governor, by 44-40 percent. His approval is trending back down after reaching its peak of 42 percent in March.

And, as the poll yesterday showed, Kasich has a […]

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A new poll from Public Policy Polling was released today, and it shows the Presidential race in Ohio is tightening.

President Obama now leads  among Ohio voters by 3 points, defeating Mitt Romney 47-44. Obama’s approval numbers have dropped, but he’s not nearly as unpopular as his opponent. Obama’s negatives exceed his positives by 7 points. But a full 20 percent more Ohioans view Romney unfavorably than those who view him favorably, 54-34.

Women continue to be a key voting bloc, split on approval/disapproval of the President (47-47), but not rushing to Romney. 57 percent […]

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I was struck by a fun chart from Charles Blow of the New York Times looking at the results of the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. It depicts, in visual terms, which demographic groups favor each major political party.

So for fun, let’s review the May 24 NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll poll of Ohio registered voters . Overall, the President leads 48-42. How does that break down demographically?

In Ohio, Romney wins among:

Republicans Independents Conservatives Tea Partiers People with a “moderate” interest in participating in the election People who […]

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new Quinnipiac Poll released today shows Obama holding a 2 point lead in Ohio, but more importantly, maintaining his significant edge among women. Obama leads Romney among likely Ohio voters by 44-42. Among women, the President’s margin is 50-37.

The real concern for the Obama folks has to be the turnaround among Ohio’s independent voters–another key voting block. The President led by 4 points in both the February and March polls, but now trails Romney by 5.

Women’s opinions about both candidates are largely unchanged. 50% of women still view Obama favorably, compared to 53% […]

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As we sit back and enjoy the results of tonight’s Ohio GOP primary, we wanted to take a look at how the long primary process has affected Mitt Romney’s polling in Ohio and how it compares to President Obama. And we’re looking at two key demographic groups, women and independents, two voting blocks that will be essential for the ultimate winner. We looked at Quinnipiac polls dating back to January, 2011. All polls are available here.

First, how are the two candidates doing in a head to head match-up? Among women, Obama has been winning against Romney since […]

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Three weeks ago, PPP showed Issue 3 passing at a whopping 31-point margin (55%-24%).  Now, Public Policy Polling shows Issue 3 is polling below 50% at a more competitive 49%-35% margin.  There has not been a single ad either pro or con on Issue 3.  The only way Issue 3 has gotten into the public consciousness is by Mitt Romney’s visit to Cincinnati wherein he refused to endorse both issues and all the roadside signs that link to the two issues together.

Is a fourteen-point gap able to close by tomorrow?  Actually, let’s take a closer look at […]

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When people start tossing the ghost of the ’05 RON amendments as a reason to believe Issue 2 may still be a genuine race, they’re basically make the same argument as someone citing “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Here’s all the reasons the “ghost of RON” shouldn’t be spooking We Are Ohio’s supporters this Halloween.

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There are a couple of things you should never do in a hotly contested political campaign.  The first is look like you’re picking on a great-grandmother who is grateful to her local firefighters for saving her great-granddaughter’s life.   The other thing is that you don’t have as the public face of your campaign an unpopular politician who is under water by double-digits in his approval/disapproval rating and have him travel the State delivering your message.   The brain trust that is the Building a Better Ohio campaign did both in the past month, and it’s had the predictable effect on Issue […]

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PPP and Quinnipiac seem to have an unspoken agreement that neither shall poll Ohio at the same time.  So, it’s hard to aggregated their data together and make trendlines, especially when both polls show sharp differences in the crosstabs.  In the last PPP poll in August, it showed Issue 2 with a statistically insignificant lead (two points) in favor of the Issue among independents.  Quinnipiac has consistently shown independents  as largely in favor of repeal.  However, both have shown, starting with the PPP in August the Issue 2 race narrowing.  However, it’s been roughly  three weeks since Quinnipiac’s last poll […]

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In an incumbent race where the challenger is largely unknown, conventional polling wisdom is the incumbent’s scoring on whether people think the incumbent deserves re-election is the most accurate predictor of the general election result.  An incumbent in the low 40s or below is in serious trouble, but an incumbent with 50% or more is viewed as an almost certain bet to win re-election.

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Sherrod Brown would fall in the latter, but President Obama the former.  Brown is, by far, the most popular elected official in the State of Ohio as the only […]

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