Ohio’s 43 straight months of subpar job growth under Gov. John Kasich got a breather last month when he finally broke the spell and outperformed the national average, in large part due to an increase in government jobs, the very category Ohio’s chief executive doesn’t like even though he’s drawn from the public trough for most of his adult life.
Kasich’s one-month Ohio miracle turned out to be a one-month fluke in reality, as job statistics for August show Ohio is back to its under-performing job growth ways.
President Barack Obama met with a variety of political and business leaders on Friday, including Gov. Kasich, as the White House pushes the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement forward for approval, the AP reports. After the meeting, Gov. Kasich and Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed participated in the daily White House news briefing.
There’s zero chance that beltway media who populate the White House press room would ask Mr. Kasich why he’s performed poorly on creating jobs for Ohioans who need and want them, and more specifically, why Ohio is back to under-performing the national average again, based on the results of new job data. As forecast here, Kasich did his usual stand-up comedy routine, offering jokes as responses.
The Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services and the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data Friday morning on employment and unemployment in August 2015 for Ohio. According to Ohio’s top jobs number cruncher, the data is disappointing as the state lost 2,000 jobs in August.
George Zeller, an analyst based in Cleveland, reports like clockwork each month on his number crunching chores that include details tucked inside monthly data banks. He notes a two month streak of increases in durable goods has ended as durable goods manufacturing lost 1,400 jobs seasonally adjusted. Nondurable goods manufacturing, he said, gained 1,800 jobs.
On the government jobs front, Mr. Zeller said for the fourth consecutive month, they increased, seasonally adjusted, by 3,000 jobs, an increase of 3,100 jobs in local government and 200 federal government jobs. At the same time, state government jobs fell by 300 jobs.
Via email to Plunderbund, Mr. Zeller noted that most of the Ohio press missed the cause of this good news. “There is a strong political ideology floating around out there that maintains it is always a good thing to cut employment and spending at the Government, including federal, state, and local,” he said. “The fact is that this ideology is completely wrong. Cutting Government spending during a bad recession always slows down any recovery that we get from that recession. (The worst example of that policy blunder in history was the Great Depression during the early 1930s).”
Being the astute researcher he is, Mr. Zeller opined that those who want to cut Government during a bad recession [that would include John Kasich and virtually all other Republicans] also want to “slow down employment growth so that many thousands (even hundreds of thousands) of those laid off workers cannot find a job, but they will never admit that because it is true.”
Other nuggets mined from the numbers by Mr. Zeller show that an unusual seasonally adjusted decrease of 1,700 jobs in the normally growing health care and social assistance contributed to the August weakness. Administrative support and waste services lost 3,400 jobs seasonally adjusted.
Revisions to Ohio’s July 2016 employment figures were revised downward by 900 jobs, both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted, he observed. Still, the August 2016 year over year job growth rate in Ohio is now 1.42 percent compared to the August 2016 USA job growth rate is 1.73 percent.
It’s no secret that Ohio press looks only at the unemployment estimates from month to month, which has been pointed out by Mr. Zeller as considerably less accurate than the job figures. “The August 2016 unemployment rate fell slightly in Ohio, but only because the Ohio labor force shrunk again in August, a fact pointed to by Mr. Zeller in his commentary on the job figures. Most of the Ohio press, including the AP, he said, ignored this major cause of the one month trend.
“With Ohio below the USA average in the new August data, Ohio has now started a new streak of one consecutive month below the USA national average,” he said, adding, “Last month’s breaking of the 43 consecutive month streak of Ohio’s job growth below the USA national average was a one month fluke.”