Ohio delegates at the DNC nominating convention in Philadelphia two weeks ago liked the chant “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.”
If that chant presages election results on Election Day this November 8, Ohio will again have voted for the next and first woman to be elected President of the United States.
Two new polls show Hillary Clinton with a leg up on Donald Trump now that both political parties have concluded their nominating conventions in July.
Offering an election update on where things stand at this point, the widely respected FiveThirtyEight says its polls-only forecast gives Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning. In its polls-plus forecast, the win percentage for Clinton drops to 75 percent. Those are still healthy percentages Team Trump would kill to have on their side.
HRC Leads DJT
A new Quinnipiac Ohio Poll released Wednesday shows that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is beating Republican nominee Donald Trump 49 to 45 percent.
Recall that in the 2012 election, 10 million more women voted than men nationally, giving President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden a win margin of 3.9 percent, or about five million votes more votes than Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan received. Women turning out this year to support her is an ace card in winning hand that is getting stronger by the week, especially in light of Trump’s fabulous fables of late.
As the key bellwether battleground state, Ohio women back Clinton 54 – 39 percent, while men back Trump 51 – 43 percent, today’s Q-poll notes about gender choices. The Donald leads 84 – 13 percent among Republicans and 50 – 39 percent among independent voters, which is good news for Team Hillary as they mine for crossover votes. Democrats back Clinton 95 – 4 percent, a better margin than Trump has with GOP voters. White voters back Trump 53 – 41 percent, but non-white voters go to Clinton 83 – 11 percent, again a better ratio than her opponent.
Ohio voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 40 – 55 percent for her and 34 – 58 percent for him. Again, despite the grist mill of negative stories about her negatives, Mrs. Clinton is better liked than Mr. Trump.
Favorability ratings for other politicos in the poll are telling, because most of them are Democrats and they’ll be in Ohio more and more as the campaign season winds down to November 8 advocating for Hillary Clinton. Each in their own way said at the convention, “I’m with her,” and that will eventually sink into the remaining electorate’s voting consciousness.
58 – 27 percent for First Lady Michelle Obama; 52 – 47 percent for President Barack Obama; 52 – 44 percent for President Bill Clinton
Among Clinton supporters, 48 percent say they are anti-Trump; 34 percent are pro-Clinton, and 15 percent say they back the Democratic nominee.
Among Trump supporters, 26 percent say they are pro-Trump, while 61 percent are anti- Clinton and 9 percent say they back the Republican nominee.
It’s a key point that cannot be underestimated, and Peter Brown at Quinnipiac made it: “Nine out of 10 Ohio voters say their minds are made up and they will not change their mind when it comes time to cast their ballot.” There is no statistical difference between Clinton or Trump voters on this question, he said.
Also important for the General Election, Ohio does not appear to be fertile ground for third party candidates with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein stuck in mid-single digits, Brown added.
In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll on Ohio, Clinton is up over Trump 43 percent to 38 percent, among the statewide electorate in Ohio. Last month, Clinton and Trump were tied with 39 percent each. Clinton maintains a similar advantage over Trump when Johnson and Stein are included in the tossup. Johnson receives double-digit support, 12 percent, statewide. Stein has the backing of just 4 percent.
So while some Ohio reporters continue to feed the grist mill of conventional wisdom that Clinton is as bad a choice as Trump, if winning Ohio is the big win to win the White House, as it’s been in 28 out of the last 30 presidential contest, Mrs. Clinton, who won it in the Democratic primary in 2008 and whose husband Bill won it twice in back-to-back contests for president, appears ready to savor victory again even if by a narrow margin.
Plunderbund readers know from the tracking poll about which Republicans are on or off the Trump Train that even thought the state is run top to bottom by Republicans, Democrats, thoughtful Republicans and independents who will eventually break to Mrs. Clinton’s camp will help her emerge victorious in less than 90 days.
HRC ‘Mines The Gap’ For Crossovers
In an effort to boost more Republicans and independents crossing to endorse Mrs. Clinton, her campaign is launching “Called Together for America,” a group organized to use the wave of new HRC converts, composed of high-profile Republicans and independents, to lure others to cross party lines.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich has said with little explanation that he won’t vote for Trump or Clinton, which leaves him with not voting at all or voting third party. Kasich promised to be a firewall to Obama in 2012 but he failed to keep that promise. It appears he and his block of Republican statewide officeholders may not be up to the task again this year as Clinton takes the lead in Ohio.
The Q-Poll showed clearly that some Republicans are voting Hillary because they won’t vote the Donald on both domestic and foreign issues. Still, several retired Republican officials, including former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Carla Hills, former Maryland Congresswoman Connie Morella, former Connecticut Congressman Chris Shays and former Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, are new endorsement converts to Hillary, the AP reported.
Since Olympic fever is in the air, a side event featuring journalistic gymnastics will be closely watched. Will the Columbus Dispatch under its new owner and The Cleveland Plain Dealer endorse Trump or Clinton or neither?
Will these two papers, who have leaned over backwards to protect and coddled Ohio’s governor—one going so far as to take down a nasty video of the governor acting like a teenager before an editorial board—try to appear neutral or bi-partisan by ticket splitting?.
Will either dare to endorse Trump, even obliquely? Will they begrudgingly endorse the former first lady, New York State senator and secretary of state? Or will they conclude the two choices are so bad that neither deserves their endorsement?
How will they treat the top of the Republican ticket when GOP legislative leaders and all but two Republican statewide office holders are on-board the Trump Train?
Get out your judging score cards PB readers. The flips, flops and somersaults will be worth the wait to watch. Meanwhile, our collective consciousness will be clear, unburdened and unsoiled.