The high guru of Republican polling and message making begrudgingly told an HBO audience Friday night that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump by three points if the election were held today. Sobering, you betcha.

Frank Luntz, pollster and expert wordsmith who works the Republican side of the isle, said Donald would lose to Clinton today by a little bit less than Mitt Romney lost to President Barack Obama just four short years ago.

Some polling, like highly rated Quinnipiac, has the race much tighter between Trump, who chose hard-right Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate yesterday, and Mrs. Clinton, who will reveal her selection for vice president next week, compared to more recent polls that show Clinton up from three to 12 points.

The most recent NBC/WSJ July national poll has Clinton at 46 percent and Trump at 41 percent. Deciphering the poll’s results, Clinton has the advantage among African Americans (84 to 7 percent), voters ages 18-29 (55 to 32 percent) and women (52 to 37 percent). Mr. Trump has the advantage with whites (50 to 37 percent) and men (46 to 39 percent), and the two candidates are tied among independents (36 percent each),” reports said.

A CBS News/NY Times telephone poll, meanwhile, has the candidates tied at 40 percent each. A McClatchy/Marist telephone poll has Clinton leading by just 3 percentage points, 42 percent to Trump’s 39 percent.

Those polls showing a tighter race got scrambled with the release of a new Reuters/Ipsos poll that shows Donald Trump falling behind Clinton by 12 percentage points. Ipsos, ranked as highly as Quinnipiac by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, the go-to standard for political calculus, showed that 45 percent of likely voters supported former Secretary of State Clinton, 33 percent supported Trump, the New York City billionaire, and the remainder supported neither. The poll was conducted online July 11-15

A report on the poll said Mrs. Clinton has been ahead in the poll since early January. Mr. Trump came close to her level of support in May, after his last two remaining rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, quit the race, leaving him as the presumptive Republican nominee. The Donald’s favorability has dropped since then, when his campaign pivoted to focus on the Nov. 8 general election.

Trump is battling criticism over his now-defunct Trump University venture, which reports say was built on making false promises, and his anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric. Mrs. Clinton continues to battle against the on-going story of her “careless” misuse of emails while she was secretary of state during President Obama’s first term. The poll results suggest that Clinton’s use of personal email for government business and her handling of classified information have not damaged her support among likely voters.