“If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support?”
For participants in Iowa who were asked this question in a new Quinnipiac Poll, 25 percent of likely GOP caucus voters picked Donald J. Trump.
Kasich Part Of Wrong 1%
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who’s been on the rise of late, follows close behind The Donald at 23 percent, double his support from four weeks ago, the Q-Poll released Wednesday shows. Dr. Ben Carson has 18 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 13 percent.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who cause celeb these days is daring to slay the dragon that is Donald Trump, registers a lonely one percent. Mr. Kasich joked early on, before he announced his candidacy in early July, that he didn’t want to go to Iowa. And in fact, he’s spent little time or money there. But other candidates competing with Gov.Kasich whose Iowa history is also thin, like Kasich’s, are beating him.
19% Of Iowans Not In Camp Kasich’s Corner
“Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?” John Kasich has some of highest numbers on this question, as 19 percent say would definitely not support him for president.
Other high numbers come from tea party people and white born-again evangelicals. Of the former, 58 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Ohio’s 69th governor while 43 percent of the later also aren’t Kasich backers. Overall, 22 percent see him favorably with 39 percent seeing the opposite.
The last Q-Poll in Ohio in October wasn’t kind to Gov. Kasich, who’s mounting a crusade in New Hampshire to cripple Mr. Trump. In that Q-Poll of Ohio Republicans, Trump took top honors with 23 percent. Dr. Ben Carson followed in second, with 18 percent, while John Kasich came in at 13 percent.
Outsider Versus Insider
Gov. Kasich has yet to break through with any voters in any state. Nationally, he’s a non factor. In New Hampshire, where he’s focused his entire campaign and where he’s already spent millions with the promise to spend millions more introducing himself and his sweet message of bringing people together to solve problems, he’s tied with Jeb Bush for fifth place.
Further evidence of who the Republican electorate is favoring these days comes from the latest USA GOP Power Rankings. These sources pick Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Tex Cruz, in that order for first, second and third place.
Ohio’s governor, who emerged from his hiding place of being the reasonable adult int he room recently to wage a crusade against Trump, calling him unfit for duty in the White House, lands in seventh place. Not good, especially for a candidate who hopes to move ahead when others in front stumble or withdraw, as Rick Perry and Scott Walker have done already, because he can’t move forward on his own momentum.
Donald Ducks Kasich Barbs
Some of those attending Trump’s appearance in Columbus Monday voted for Kasich for governor again last year, but won’t do so when it comes to president. Caleb Turner, who was among the 14,000 who showed up to see The Donald, put Kasich in proper perspective, according to one published report.
“(Kasich’s) been a career politician, he’s been a Washington insider, and he’s been part of an establishment of the Republican Party. We want a person who will shake Washington up and will bring people together, and it’s only going to take an outsider who will bring people together.”
Kasich’s Hopes ‘Applecart’ Can Help
John Kasich’s super-PAC has hired a company to create a “social graph” of possible supporters by scanning high school yearbooks, small-town newspapers, and sports-team rosters,” according to Bloomberg News.
Applecart is a New York-based data company that specializes in taking social-network analysis offline. The company’s system starts with targets they want to reach and then moves back to find people who are connected with them.
On Applecart’s ‘social graph’ of New Hampshire, where Gov. Kasich is betting his ranch, each voter gets special attention. Nuclear family, extended family, friends, professional acquaintances, and non-professional acquaintances, Bloomberg reports, “are each assigned different statistical weights, then mixed with other values such as geographical proximity to calibrate a ‘connection score.’”
From November 16 – 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 600 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
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