A year from now, American voters will select their next president. Who’s up and who’s down from day to day is the on-going obsession of political junkies, especially the high-priced variety that dominate talking TV shows every day and every night.

After all their so-called expert insight, not one of them can predict with any assurance who voters will choose next fall. As they pretend to be able to foresee the future, they always withdraw to reality, which is to say, they don’t know since they’re only as good as yesterday’s headlines and what other members of their Beltway echo chamber say, which is often, stunningly, out right wrong or just wishful thinking.

Place Your Bets

But there are those who do look at the 2016 presidential contest as a betting proposition. For those souls, the outcome isn’t as up in the air as the chattering class makes it seem.

At Predictwise, an online betting site, the surprise isn’t whether Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat’s candidate [91%] but when that glorious event happens in advance of the Democratic national convention next summer.

For Republicans, who are currently sporting a far larger field of White House wannabes, the betting proposition is far more challenging a year out. But the odds makers do have their favorites already. As for the 2016 Presidential Election, and the likelihood of who Republicans will nominate, the leader right now is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with a 44 percent chance of taking on Democrats next year.

In descending order after Rubio comes Donald Trump at 20 percent, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz tie for second place at 11 percent. In third place is Ben Carson at 7 percent followed by Chris Christie with 4 percent.

Stuck halfway between Rubio and George Pataki in 13th place at zero percent comes Ohio Gov. John Kasich at a paltry 2 percent.

For the governor of Ohio, who’s riding around the Granite State in a shiny bus with a ticking debt clock in it, Iowa looks even worse for him at zero percent, as Rubio and Carson take first and second place, respectively.

In New Hampshire, where Gov. Kasich has dedicated considerable time and spent many millions already with many more millions to be spent, he can’t finish lower than third place next February and still be considered viable. Right now, Mr. Kasich places fifth, with 8 percent, behind vote leaders Donald Trump and Rubio.

 
  • davescottsc

    Zero seems a bit high. (Couldn’t be happening to a more deserving guy)

  • missskeptic

    As pleased as I am with Kasich’s low polling numbers, he still can’t be counted out. He is still very much a contender for VP, especially if Rubio gets the nod – pretty hard to turn down those electoral college votes of Ohio and Florida.

  • Susan Riley

    Agreed. Kasich knows he is not going to be the next President. In fact, he knows he’s not going to be the Republican nominee. I think he’s staying in hoping for the VP slot.

  • anastasjoy

    Those odds sound about right. I always predicted that since he couldn’t run a presidential campaign by hiding like he ran his campaign in Ohio last year, soon enough voters would be seeing the real John Kasich — rude, arrogant and obnoxious. In addition, his little pretend compassionate “moderate” act is infuriating base conservatives. Oh, poor Johnny. 0% sounds like about what he deserves.

  • anastasjoy

    I don’t think he has a shot at that either, because he’s just nasty and unpleasant and his ego is likely to clash with that of whoever wins the presidential nomination.

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