While Ohio Gov. John Kasich was trying to schmooze Arizona Republicans in Phoenix Wednesday on the need for a federal balanced budget amendment, back home, his “Ohio Model” took another drubbing as newly released jobs data shows he continues to fail to keep pace with good news on job creation at the national level.
More Bad News On Jobs for Gov. Jobs Creator
The Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released a weekly update to new claims for unemployment this morning, according to the Buckeye State’s unofficial but undisputed master keeper of job scoreboard statistics.
In an email to OhioNewsBureau [ONB], Cleveland-based George Zeller presents an updated Economic Indicators report showing this week’s Ohio unemployment claims data weakened noticeably, leading to the inescapable conclusion that Mr. Kasich isn’t the job creator he says he is.
According to Zeller, “Ohio has unfortunately extended a new streak to six consecutive weeks with a job destruction level of new unemployment claims that is currently elevated. In a very different pattern, he said, nationwide USA data weakened very slightly this week but are still unusually positive. Thus, the updated data on new unemployment claims are slightly mixed but mostly favorable in the USA, with the clearly negative Ohio results during the newly updated week in stark contrast to more positive USA national data this week.”
Zeller observed that Ohio’s 10,932 new unemployment claims posted for the first week of December 2014 are now 32.6 percent higher than the 8,244 new unemployment claims that Ohio had during the first week of December 1999, the last year when Ohio had unambiguous job growth for the entire year. Ohio has unfortunately returned this week to the “job destruction” range of new claims that are currently elevated above normal levels, he said.
“The unfavorable Ohio data today are in stark contrast to the slightly weakening but still very positive data released today on Thursday at the national level for the USA by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,” Zeller says, adding, “The national data are therefore highly encouraging, and are far better than the newly updated and newly unfavorable weakening figures released for Ohio today.”
The new jobs data shows that all seven of Ohio’s seven large multi-county metro regions currently have elevated “job destruction” levels of current new unemployment claims. Columbus has returned to the highest elevated level, while Youngstown-Warren plunged this week to the lowest elevated level among the seven regions. Toledo retains Ohio’s second highest elevated level while metro Youngstown-Warren has this week’s lowest elevated level. Firms always discharge more employees around Christmas and during the early winter months than they do at any other time of year, Zeller notes.
For Mr. Zeller, the speed of Ohio’s recovery is the rub. “Through October 2014 Ohio currently has a streak of twenty-four consecutive months with Ohio’s job growth rate below the USA national average. That streak was lengthened in October 2014 to a period of time that it reached two full years,” he told ONB. “Even more troubling is the fact that Ohio’s 24,400 jobs lost in July was the largest figure for job losses during July 2014 that was suffered by any USA state, and Ohio’s October job growth was a very weak 1,000 jobs. Extremely slow growth of only 1,000 jobs in Ohio during October 2014 was startlingly weak, increasing the current gap between the Ohio job growth rate and the USA job growth rate.” Continuing, the Cleveland jobs guru said, “Ohio new unemployment claims is a potentially unfavorable leading indicator in advance of new Ohio job data for November 2014 scheduled for release on December 19 that will measure whether Ohio’s continually below average recovery is finally improving to national norms.”
“Since Ohio has still not recovered more than 130,900 jobs that it lost as a result of the deep and lengthy 2007-2009 national ‘Great Recession,’ it is discouraging to see today’s data on new claims that measure a return to job destruction elevated levels of Ohio new unemployment claims,” says Zeller. “Further improvements in subsequent weeks are still urgently needed so that more than 130,900 Ohio workers who lost their jobs during the 2007 Great Recession will be able to find a new job.”
Michigan Model Competes with Ohio Model
In separate news, while Gov. Kasich was pitching his bad idea for a federal balanced budget amendment, his so-called “Ohio Model” has new competition in the form of the “Michigan Model.” In a published report Thursday, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, also reelected in November like Kasich, is said to be ready to take Detroit’s success story on the road. ,” by James Hohmann: “Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, a Republican, bet his political career on turning around Detroit, writes James Hofmann at Politico. “Snyder’s success … has given him a captivating rationale to run for president… Snyder [said] that he plans a more aggressive travel schedule next year to ‘explain the Michigan story to the rest of the country.”