The economic recovery in Ohio is officially over.

Despite inheriting a State that was both hardest hit and fastest to recover from the Great Recession before he took office, Gov. John Kasich has fumbled the recovery.  As we noted, most the jobs gained since Kasich took office occurred in 2011 and early 2012 before most of his policies took effect.  Naturally, this has lead to the Ohio and national press corps to start speculating on Governor Kasich running for President.

This morning, the July jobs report came out.  The good news? Ohio gained 5,300 jobs with the private sector gaining 9,100 jobs and the public sector losing 3,300.  Job losses in federal and local government outpaced gains in state government.  3,100 jobs were lost in construction last month which has seen 6,300 lost jobs since last July.   Roughly half of the private sector gains last month came from the typically low pay/low benefits leisure and hospitality sector.  Ohio’s job gains in July only erased less than 59% of the jobs lost in June.

That’s all the good news.  The rest is bad news.  Ohio’s unemployment rate stayed at 7.2% as the unemployment rate nationally dropped .2% last month.  The only “miracle” in Ohio’s economic news last month is that Ohio’s unemployment rate didn’t go up.  But over the past twelve months, Ohio’s unemployment rate hasn’t moved.  Like, at all.    And the trendlines over the past months strongly suggest there’s far greater pressure that will drive Ohio’s unemployment rate up than down.

For the THIRD consecutive month in a row, the number of unemployed Ohioans grew.  In July, three thousand Ohioans joined the rank of the unemployed.  That means there are 1,000 more Ohioans unemployed today than there were a year ago.  Although the CES survey of employer’s payrolls showed a gain of 5,300 jobs, the LAUS survey of households (which actually determines the State’s unemployment rate) showed 14,000 fewer Ohioans reported being employed, so there is a disparity between what company payroll records are reporting to what Ohio households are saying.

Ordinarily, this kind of movement would send the unemployment rate up.  Remember when the June report showed Ohio with the second most job losses in the nation?  Remember Kasich spokesman Rob Nichols’ spin was that a positive sign was a 6,000 increase in the number of people in the labor pool?

Yeah, you can forget that.  In July, 11,000 Ohioans dropped out of the labor market even though the number of Ohioans of working age grew by 4,000. So, what little gain we saw in the labor market in June has been erased nearly twice over a month later.  In fact, over the past twelve months, the working age population has grown by 33,000, but the number of Ohioans actively in the labor market (either as employed or people looking for work) has only grown by 6,000.  In other words, only 18% of Ohioans who have increased the working age population in Ohio over the past twelve months have actually joined the labor market either as someone who is employed or looking for employment.   And yes, not only did the labor participation rate drop since last month, but it’s actually lower now than it was twelve months ago.   The ratio of employed Ohioans to the overall working population was smaller last month than it was a year ago, too.

All in all, this morning job report for July was far more negative than positive.  When looking at the totality of the data, there are more Ohioans unemployed today than a year ago.  A smaller percentage of Ohioans are working or looking for work today than a year ago, and those that are looking for work are having a harder time finding it.  These are signs that Ohio’s has so much “slack” in it (i.e.- discouraged Ohioans who have stopped looking for work) that it has kept Ohio’s unemployment rate artificially low.  The troubling sign is building, not decreasing.

Ohio’s unemployment rate has gone up .5% over the course of the year so far.  And most indications are the only thing that has kept it from going higher is that the rate of people dropping out of the labor market has outpaced the increase in people who have become unemployed.   Over the course the year, 13,000 more Ohioans have become unemployed and there are 15,000 fewer Ohioans employed so far.  Since the end of 2012, Ohio’s employment situation has not stagnated, it’s gotten worse.  Undeniably worse.

It’s  hard to ignore these statistics or the inevitable, but regrettable conclusion, the recovery in Ohio has officially gone from stalled this year to ended.  Governor Kasich has been arguing that his “Ohio Model” is working.  Perhaps it’s working for his presidential ambitions as the national punditry swoons, but it’s not working for Ohioans.  John Kasich, he just didn’t get the job done.

  • dmoore2222

    And he sure made a mess in the meantime. Privatizing everything in sight, saddling the Ohio Turnpike with long term dept, starving school districts and communities of funding, hating on police, women, gays and workers. This fool is not presidential. He’s simply a political opportunist who got lucky that democrats got lazy in the 2010 election in which he failed to get a majority vote. Ohioans have had time to figure out that their lives are not better under his joke of an administration. Hillary will eat this faker for lunch.

  • anastasjoy

    Anyone remember how an economy that was bad but improving — but not improving fast enough, according to Kasich — was enough for Kasich to beat Strickland by the tiniest of margins? And how the GOP scoffed at anyone that said Strickland could only do so much about a struggling national economy? Oh no, Kasich was going to be a miracle worker!!!

    So let’s not allow him any excuses now. If the economy kept Strickland from a second term, then it should keep Kasich from a second term — along with his attacks on women (you have no IDEA how angry women are!), his attacks on labor, his complicity in attacks on voters, his starving of local governments and public schools, and his stunning tax increases on most Ohioans while lavishing more money on the state’s richest citizens. And then there’s the prison privatization that’s blown up in his face, the bonding of the turnpike that will be an anchor on northern Ohio’s economy, and of course, RobsOhio.

    Seriously, I am getting sick of quitter Democrats who say Kasich can’t be beaten. Point out a group he hasn’t alienated. I have never seen a candidate for re-election with so many negatives. He only wins if we quit 15 months before the election. So get out there and focus on ending this clown’s political career.

  • John McNay

    Excellent analysis.

  • rainbow coaltion

    real unemployment more like 28%

  • modernesquire

    Yes, I remember the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, and despite the fact the recession hit Ohio virtually harder than any other State, it was all the more remarkable that Ohio, under Ted Strickland, recovered faster than the rest of the nation. A trend that has been reversed under John Kasich. Strickland’ s record is he was a Governor who inherited a state with higher unemployment than the nation in good economic times, steered it through the recession, and left office with an unemployment rate below the national average, another trend that Gov. Kasich is well on his way to reverse as well.

  • modernesquire

    BTW, is it your argument really that is okay for Ohio to have unemployment stay at 7.2% for a YEAR during a recovery because during the recession which lasted over a year unemployment stayed high for eight months???

    On what planet is that convincing argument? You realize that offer the course of this year or rate has gone up at almost the same rate it has dropped nationally?

    It’s not surprising that economy was bad in Ohio during a recession. It IS surprising when it’s bad during a national recovery.

  • Erica Leslie

    Do you realize that of the 24 states offering the freedom of choice brought by Right To Work laws, most of those states have had consistently dropping unemployment rates which have helped considerably in lowering the national rate of unemployment? Or do you simply dismiss the facts that not only counter your claim but prove it to be absurd?
    It is fact that FIFTEEN of those states have lower unemployment rates than that of Ohio currently. Additionally, SIX out of the eight states which have unemployment rates lower than five percent are RTW states, and the ONLY THREE states to have rates at or below 4% are RTW states. Furthermore, THIRTEEN of these RTW states are below the median national unemployment rate and it is their progress that has most greatly defined the “national average”.
    Your claim that “The economic recovery in Ohio is officially over.” is either out of complete ignorance, or utter dishonesty. The fact is that while the economic recovery may be being halted by the over unionization of our state in comparison to those fairing better economically, it is certainly NOT over.
    Considering the limitations that the forced unionism has brought to Gov. Kasich during a time when large companies and employers are taking their business, their employment offers, and their money to states with workplace freedom laws, I am amazed that the governor is doing as well at lowering the unemployment rate within the past year and a half as he has thus far. I’m sure that he will bring even greater success to Ohio when the citizenry’s voice is heard and RTW laws are implemented leading to Ohio earning a spot as competitive for job growth in this nation just like the majority of the RTW states have done thus far.

  • Erica Leslie

    I’m a woman, and I’m glad that he is standing up for the rights of the innocent. The unborn were not asked to be conceived, and they should not have their little brains, fingers, toes, and bodies vacuumed out like garbage just because women and men aren’t being responsible. The rest of your statements are so ridiculous and filled with the same old liberal lies and union propaganda that they aren’t even worthy of being addressed.

  • anastasjoy

    Erica, the NATIONAL economy imploded everywhere, thanks to George Bush. Under Strickland, Ohio was starting to emerge from the Bush horror. Now that the national economy is struggling to right itself, Taxin’ John Kasich who promised that he was going to perform the sort of economic magic Strickland could not, has kicked the feet out from under recovery and Ohio is now doing worse than the rest of the cpuntry. Your talking points don’t align with actual facts.

  • anastasjoy

    Do YOU realize that the RTW states have the lowest wages and highest poverty in the country? Is that really what you want for Ohio? Texas likes to brag about having low unemployment. It also has the highest poverty, least number of people with access to health care, lowest wages, and worst education in the country. Hallelujan, the promised land. This incomplete argument is the last refuge of union-hating scoundrels.

  • Erica Leslie

    Actually anastasjoy, your rambling points do not align with actual facts. Please show me one data set that backs up your assertion that Ohio is doing worse than the rest of the country.
    According to the BLS data, Ohio is doing the same as or better than 23 other states in the union, of which SIXTEEN of those states are forced unionism states (meaning they do not offer their workforce full of taxpayers the right of choice under RTW laws). Meanwhile, there are only nine states with RTW laws with higher unemployment rates and FIFTEEN states with RTW laws with LOWER unemployment rates than Ohio currently.
    I will never understand being so “diehard straight party” that one would not even check the “facts” which their party is putting out there. I would suggest trying to be an individual that seeks out REAL and FACTUAL information from RELIABLE sources, as it seems you have yet to do so here.

  • anastasjoy

    OK, Erica, since you are a dirty debater and you think my points are “ranbling,’ while demands still more piles of facts you will deny, listen to this one simpl fact: Right to work states have lower wages and higher poverty than the rest of the county. More people may be working — and the reason is that corporate greed wants the cheapest labor pool — but these are becoming de facto third-world countries. Is that simple enough for you? Are you eager to support yourself on $10,000 a year? Good.

  • Erica Leslie

    Ah anastasjoy, more liberal banter that has no basis in fact. Please do your own research rather than listening to and regurgitating the ridiculous things you spew. Perhaps you should start by visiting the BLS website and comparing the economies, wages, unemployment stats and any other information you might find pertinent in making an educated and informed opinion. Might I suggest looking at RTW states and comparing their statistical data with the data of their forced union neighboring states.
    I will never be forced to support myself or my family on a mere $10,000.00 a year, because I have taken the time and put in the effort to educate myself and have always demonstrated my competitive value to my supervisors and hiring managers during my years of employment.
    I pity those who accept receiving the same level of pay and being treated with the same way no matter the standard of work shown instead of pushing forward and showing their true value as an individual. That would be an awful and unfulfilled career and life in my opinion.

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