So the Republicans want to wait on Medicaid expansion until we curb Medicaid cost growth.

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The cost curve on Medicaid is bent. How about just state spending?

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But wait, most Medicaid spending is on ABD (Aged, Blind, and Disabled). What about spending only on Covered Families and Children–the group most likely to be covered by expansion?

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Note how the per capita spending was $3050 in 2010. That’s less than half of what the average enrollee costs.


Seriously, I don’t know what they’re talking about.

Medicaid is simple. It’s 1) people who use a lot of health care (pregnant women, elderly persons, disabled persons) and 2) people who use almost no health care (children, young adults). Per capita Medicaid costs are determined by the percentage of Group 2 in the Medicaid pool.

If you’re interested in lowering per capita Medicaid costs, expand Medicaid!

But what if you’re interested in lowering medical inflation? In that case, expand Medicaid!

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The thing about Obamacare is that it makes the government responsive to private health costs, since it’s paying so much in subsidies. Do we want people in Medicaid, with a nominal growth rate of 2.3%, or do we want to pay for their private insurance’s growth rate of 5.3%?

Ohio Republicans have given their answer:

(Health spending figures from Kaiser. All figures in 2013 dollars.)