Just last night, I wrote that Romney’s move to wage a multi-front war of lies in Ohio showed all you needed to know about where the Romney campaign believes the state of the race was in Ohio:
Mitt Romney can’t defeat President Obama in Ohio on the facts, so he’s running on fictions. … And it’s all you need to know about where the Romney campaign believes things stand for them politically in Ohio. These are the actions of a political animal at the end of his rope and nearly out of time.
Just kidding, the Romney camp lost their ever loving minds today.
But here’s the funny thing about the Quinnipiac poll, and the odd nature of the Romney campaign and conservatives to single it out (Dick Morris just alleged that their raw result showed Romney ahead by +5 points, so they skewed the data to show Obama ahead by that much): it’s the same numbers Quinnipiac had in their last poll.
Ironically, earlier today, the Romney campaign seized upon a poll in Pennsylvania to argue that it really had a chance to win Pennsylvania that shows just how disingenuous the Romney campaign is being about these state polls. The Pennsylvania poll showed Romney losing by four points. So, according to Romney, a poll that shows him losing a State by five points is “crap,” but one that shows him losing by four is a sign of Mittmentum. This is the kind of analysis that only John McCain and John Halperin could appreciate.
And even if you could dismiss it, there’s the fact that six other polls all show Obama ahead, including the University of Cincinnati poll released today which had showed the race tied as recently as this weekend (but the last poll was conducted immediately after the second presidential debate and before the third when Romney was still likely at his peak in Ohio from his first, and only, debate win.) Also, UC has not exactly had the best track record in forecasting elections in Ohio lately.
Pop quiz: which polling outfits were closest to accurately predicting the election results in the 2010 Ohio gubernatorial race?
Oh, that would be Quinnipiac and PPP, which both show Obama up by five now. So the conservatives are trying to dismiss the polls that were the most accurate in the 2010 GOP high tide election in Ohio as “biased for Democrats.” Here’s one of the universal laws in political science: the side that is complaining about widespread polling bias is losing.
Hey, you remember back at the end of July we said that Obama was polling better now that he was in 2008 on the head-to-head margins? Well, while it’s true that Obama right now isn’t winning by the same margins at this point as the averaging of the polls showed him at this point in Ohio in 2008, consider the following facts about Ohio according to RealClearPolitics:
- In 2008, Obama’s average in the polls for support in Ohio was 49.2%. Today, it’s 48.9%. You read that right. Obama’s lost only .3% of the support he had in 2008. Romney is polling a little better than 3 points than McCain was because there are fewer undecided voters this cycle.
- Obama’s numbers in Ohio are going up, while in ‘08 they were starting to trend sharply down in Ohio.
- By the time the election came in 2008, Obama’s average margin was 2.5. Today, it’s 2.3, again virtually the same margins has he had in 2008. Obama actually won Ohio by a 4.6 margin in 2008, though. Again, this is using the data from RealClearPolitics, folks.
- With the exception of one poll, Quinnipiac has pretty much shown the same margin lead for Obama in Ohio since July of this year.
- So has PPP.
- The Ohio Poll by UC? It’s basically where it was when it first polled the race in August.
- Whatever gains Romney made after the first debate are gone in Ohio. RealClearPolitics shows Obama’s getting nearly the same level of support in Ohio has he had at his peak after the DNC convention and is leading by same margins over Romney he was enjoying from June to mid-July before the conventions. That’s how little things have changed in Ohio in the past three months.
In other words, the only thing that’s changed in Ohio since the Summer Olympics is that Romney’s closed the gap of the President’s lead, but not by taking support from the President in Ohio.
That’s the reason why they’re now talking about Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. The Romney camp is a) trying to project electoral strength in the face of likely defeat and b) trying to avoid defeat by finding a last minute replacement for carrying Ohio. Too bad the recent polling out of Wisconsin and Michigan strongly suggests those states are even less in play than Ohio.
We vote, we’ll win. It’s that simple.