Back in June I asked the question: As Josh Mandel slips in the polls, how long until his big donors abandon him?  The answer may have come sooner than expected.

As predicted, polling continues to be poor for Mandel.  TPM currently has Sherrod Brown with a nearly 9-point lead averaged across all polls.  Quinnipiac has Brown up by 12.

Brown continues to maintain his strength even after Karl Rove’s Crossroad’s GPS spent $2.5 million in targeted advertising on Senate races in swing-states last month – including Virginia, Montana and $1.1 million in Ohio.

Rove seems to have noticed that his spending is having no impact.

Today The Hill reports that Crossroads GPS is launching a new $7.2 million Senate ad blitz across swing states.  Virginia and Montana – both Toss-up races – are still being targeted.   Ohio, however, has dropped off the list.

You have to assume Karl Rove’s data is even better than the public polling we’ve seen – and if Rove has given up on Mandel, you have to assume his numbers are telling him Mandel doesn’t have a chance.

Mandel’s campaign has been relying on ads paid for by outside groups like Rove’s to keep his chances afloat.  And without their help, he’s going to have to dip into his own war chest much earlier than he expected.   Now that Rove has pulled his money from Mandel, can we expect other national groups to do the same?

Magic 8-Ball says…