Yesterday we discussed polling in the Presidential and Senate race in Ohio explaining how polling this good, at this point in the race, has historically been good news for the candidate leading in Ohio.

Yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll provides even more good news on the polling front, with Sherrod Brown leading Josh Mandel by 12 points, and President Obama at 50% with likely voters, carrying a 6 point lead over Mitt Romney.  

Obama is still down 10 points with men, but he more than makes up for it by winning with women by 21 points. Brown also beats Mandel by 21 points with women – but he had a lead with men by 1 point.

When last month’s Quinny poll came out showing Brown with a 16 point lead over Mandel, a lot of people called it an outlier and an anomaly. While it’s true it’s dropped a few points this month, Brown still maintains a healthy double-digit lead. Looks like the outlier is starting to become the norm.

The Sutton/Renacci race also got some good news yesterday. The campaign released the results of a poll showing Sutton up 42 to 40. Keep in mind this district was specifically drawn by Republicans to ensure an easy victory for Renacci. I guess that didn’t work out as well as they planned.

Lauren makes some good points this morning about the potential impacts of voter suppression and unlimited external money flowing into the race this year. And if the Voters First petition makes it on the ballot, we can add that as another variable as well. But from a pure polling perspective, things are looking up for November and apathy should be the last thing Democrats are feeling after hearing this news. Instead they should all be jumping out of their seats and running down to the nearest campaign office to sign the volunteer sheet.

 

Categories

Archives

Advertisement