The Supreme Court will issue its opinion in the Health Care Law on Thursday.

Many progressives seem to assume that things will not go well based on the arguments.  After the arguments, we printed an email from a member of the Supreme Court Bar who cautioned not to read too much into oral argument.

Today, the Supreme Court decided the Arizona immigration case.  The news coverage of the oral argument suggested that the Administration’s position was in big trouble.  A summary in Slate suggested that “most court watchers were in agreement that the White House most likely won’t like the outcome given how the day’s action went.”   The Atlantic published an article with this line:  “reading through the transcript of Wednesday’s oral argument is like sifting through the debris of an ambush. The Court’s majority clearly isn’t feeling deferential toward the federal government’s immigration policies. Some of the justices’ disdain for executive branch priorities practically dripped from their words.”

Yet despite the questions that seemed to go against the Obama Administration, the Administration won.  The Court decided in favor of the Obama administration on almost every issue.  This screen grab from CNN this morning captures the point best.


The Headline is from an article describing the oral arguments suggesting that the Obama Administration would lose – but note the “Breaking News” summarizing the opposite result.

So what does that mean for the Affordable Care Act?  This is a reminder that based on the oral arguments, we simply don’t know how the case will end up.  Hang in there.