I was struck by a fun chart from Charles Blow of the New York Times looking at the results of the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. It depicts, in visual terms, which demographic groups favor each major political party.
In Ohio, Romney wins among:
- Tea Partiers
- People with a “moderate” interest in participating in the election
- People who intend to vote on election day
- Columbus area
- People making $75,000 or more
Obama wins among:
- People with a “high” or “low” interest in participating in the election
- People who plan to vote early or haven’t decided when they will vote
- Every age group examined: under 45, 45 and older, 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 59 and 60 and older
- Cleveland area
- Eastern Ohio
- People making less than $75,000
- Non-college graduates
- Landline and cell phone users
There is not a single age group that Obama loses, though his best performance comes among those 30-44 years of age, where he leads by 16 points. He does well among a variety of minority groups and geographic areas. Perhaps the most surprising results are that Obama wins among seniors and in Eastern Ohio, given the media’s recent attempts to label both as closet racists unwilling to reelect a black President.
According to the poll, Romney’s base in Ohio are rich, white, tea party and evangelical men in Central Ohio who are only moderately excited to vote. Given that description, brace yourselves for some pretty horrible advertising from the Romney folks this fall.