new Quinnipiac Poll released today shows Obama holding a 2 point lead in Ohio, but more importantly, maintaining his significant edge among women. Obama leads Romney among likely Ohio voters by 44-42. Among women, the President’s margin is 50-37.

The real concern for the Obama folks has to be the turnaround among Ohio’s independent voters–another key voting block. The President led by 4 points in both the February and March polls, but now trails Romney by 5.

Women’s opinions about both candidates are largely unchanged. 50% of women still view Obama favorably, compared to 53% in March. Meanwhile, women are not warming to Romney, with only 30% viewing him favorably, down slightly from 31% in March.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Despite a nine-point swing shifting the balance in Romney’s favor among Ohio’s independent voters, surprisingly, those voters still hold a more favorable opinion of the President than of his challenger. While Obama’s favorability ratings are dropping among independents (down to 40% from 47% in March), those voters aren’t falling in love with Romney. He is actually viewed favorably by fewer independent Ohio voters this month than in March–33%, down from 37%.

Bottom line, while it wasn’t a great month for the President with independents, he’s holding his own with women, and neither important group of voters has yet warmed up to Romney. The movement appears to come from voters souring on the President. While independent voters may say today they are inclined to vote for Romney, they still don’t like him.

The election is really Obama’s to win or lose.

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