The Republican primary process thus far has been a boon to those of us who want to see Barack Obama elected to a second term.  By boon, I mean about as well as it could go absent a Sarah Palin veep pick type calamity.  In fact, that is what is happening.  The GOP appears to be in a struggle with itself and may again hand an election to Barack Obama.

The latest TPM poll average shows Romney falling below 40% against Obama:

Given that Santorum seems to be fading fast after last night’s debate, it looks like O’mentum may continue.  Intrade, the prediction market website, has an Obama re-election at 60%:

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That’s a real nice trend there since October.  It’s that old time O-mentum.  What’s behind the trend?

For one, the GOP does not have a solid candidate yet and that uncertainty is lending itself to Obama being generally insulated from a full on frontal assault.  This is typical of primaries, but you would think by now there would be a clear favorite.  The talk is all Romney and that will probably be where we end up, but the volatility has to be hurting the chances of getting a solid narrative off the ground for the Republican candidate.

The other thing that is preventing a solid narrative is that darned improving economy and the fact that some dude named Osama bin Laden is dead.

Two of the sharpest attacks Republicans lean on have been completely neutered!  National defense?  Check.  Economy?  Check.  Where do you think that will take us?

Duh.  The old standby.  Social issues.  It’s already happening.  Contraception, IUDs, abortion, religious freedom, ahoy!

If this election ends up being mostly about social issues I think Obama wins it going away.  Republicans will gel around whoever the nomination is – including Romney.  The only goal of conservatives is to push the eventual candidate further to the right.  Look at Romney’s battling tax plans.  Top tier are getting more and more breaks as conservatives lean and pressure.

I think independents are mostly tired of social issues, right wingers and fundamentalist Christians will do their bidding, and left wingers will get fired up and ready to go.  Voters care about one thing and that is jobs and the economy.  Things are improving, though slowly, and if that trend continues this race won’t be close.  That’s why from a legislative standpoint Republicans are doing as much obstructing as possible and talking the economy down.  Remember when that was un-American?

GM = Alive, OBL = Dead, Obama = 2012

Just give me some of that old time O’mentum!

 
  • missskeptic

    I will add one thing that sways voters – the price of gas at the pump.  Obama must get a handle on this quickly.  Yes, I know he has very little to do with gas prices, that is the territory of speculators and oil swindlers and Iranian maniacs.  But he will get the blame if gas is high this summer.

    BTW, the omentum is a layer of fat around the organs of the abdomen. 

  • bestofcbus

    The intellectual dishonesty in the rhetoric of the right and, sad to say, much of the left, is mind-numbing. It’s so blatant. Thanks for the post!

  • bestofcbus

    Ha-ha! I was wondering what O-mentum was all about . . . 🙂 Thanks for clearing that up!

  •  I’m not a big fan of intellectual dishonesty.  Couldn’t tell, where you saying there was some in this post?  I’d agree there is a ton on the right and it is mind numbing!

  • Yuck!  Note I said O-mentum, not omentum.  😉  Maybe I should start using Obamamentum?  LOL

  • Dmoore2222

    Not that long ago I would have agreed that the economy was the ONLY issue that would matter come November. But due to the recent republican tone deafness over women’s health issues, a fight THEY picked, I think they just may have awakened the sleeping giant that will pummel them in the Fall. Look at the protest turnout in Virginia, not exactly your bastion of civil unrest, over republican anti-women legislation. This attempt by the republicans to recreate the 50s is another miscalculation ranking right up there with their obstrctionist politics they thought would make Obama and the democrats look bad.

    And here in Ohio, as if it wasn’t bad enough to have the anchor of John Kasich around their necks,  republicans will see attention drawn to their own radical heartbeat legistlation conjuring up the specter of Bill Batchelder hovering in the bedrooms of Ohio women.

    Keep digging, boys!

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