PPP and Quinnipiac seem to have an unspoken agreement that neither shall poll Ohio at the same time.  So, it’s hard to aggregated their data together and make trendlines, especially when both polls show sharp differences in the crosstabs.  In the last PPP poll in August, it showed Issue 2 with a statistically insignificant lead (two points) in favor of the Issue among independents.  Quinnipiac has consistently shown independents  as largely in favor of repeal.  However, both have shown, starting with the PPP in August the Issue 2 race narrowing.  However, it’s been roughly  three weeks since Quinnipiac’s last poll came out, so that data is becoming increasingly stale.

Enter today’s PPP poll which shows Ohioans supporting repealing of SB 5 by voting down Issue 2 by a 56%-36% margin, from 50% to 39% in August.   Back then, I said that the Better Ohio campaign would repeat and perhaps out do the closing of the gap PPP showed from May (+20 point gap in favor of repeal) to August (+11 point gap in favor of repeal) in the time period from mid-August to early November.  Conservatives were quick to tout PPP’s August poll as signs that Ohioans were “wising up” to the deceit of We Are Ohio, etc. and that they had momentum to carry them to victory come November.  Instead of continuing to close the gap, the race went the other direction and returned to the twenty point gap PPP showed in May.  This could be real movement, or the August result could have just been a statistical blip.  Either way, with less than three weeks to go, it looks like Issue 2 is doomed to fail:

With 30% of Republicans in this blue-collar, Rust-Belt state against SB5, and Democrats making up a 47% plurality of voters and his own party only 37%, Kasich cannot rely on turnout alone to prevail. He has to get more of the GOP in line or break the 46-46 tie with independents.

This poll was taken in the midst of “GrannyGate.”  Almost all of the movement was on the Democratic side which has further solidified.   Kasich, according to the PPP, is now the most unpopular Governor in the nation with a 37%/54% approval/disapproval rating.  In a rematch against Ted Strickland, Kasich, who won with a two-point plurality vote, would be CRUSHED by Ted Strickland by fourteen points (54%-40%).

A plurality (40%) of Ohioans do not like the congressional map, and support a referendum to repeal it by a (36%-28%) margin.  So Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern can point out that he has public opinion on his side as the party pushes for a referendum to force the legislature to adopt a more competitive congressional map.  Right now, the GOP legislative leadership is trying to draw a racial wedge through the party by seeing if they make the “new” Franklin County district more favorable to a minority candidate they can peel off the Ohio Legislative Black Caucus and give them the votes they need to pass the map as an emergency measure without no other Democratic support.

One thing that is troubling is that PPP shows Issue 3 the unconstitutional so-called “Health Care freedom constitutional amendment” is favored by 55% to 24%.  This says two things: 1) voters have not gotten much information about what Issue 3 is and how it is so broadly drafted it will have a negative impact on other health care rules besides “Obamacare” (and how its stated intention is wholly unconstitutional), and 2) it has done little to help save Issue 2.

Despite differences in the cross tabs, the universe of public polling on Issue 2 has been fairly constant.  It’s hard to imagine a surprise on Election Night, so long as Issue 2 opponents don’t become complacent and fail to vote.  At this point, it seems like Kasich would be well advised to start to distance himself from Issue 2 and start to lay the groundwork to continue to downplay its importance to his overall agenda.  He also needs to give careful thought to the post-Issue 2 political world and how he will respond if the issue is handily defeated in less than three weeks from today.

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  • Tina McGrevy

    “Careful thought”????  Bahahahaha…that’s a good one!

  • Anonymous

    LET”S NOT GIVE UP!!!!!!!!!

    Keep your eyes on the prize ,hold on……..

  • Anonymous

    I saw something about Liz Cheney (Dick’s devil spawn) planning to spend $20 million to save SB 5 – I would say it’s too late at this point to make much difference.  Has anyone else heard this?  With many people already voting, why would the right pour good money down a black hole? 

  • Anonymous

    dang my local paper just printed a story that has the pro-SB5 people in a tizzy. They are fired up. As usual, they are getting half the story.

  • Fotogirlcb2002

    Well …. I have found around where I live  its  the opposite — I hear  yes on 2  from a lot of people ,,,,,,,listen in line everywhere –grocery , dept  stores,  etc.
    I do hear some people say it was mean what they did to that lil ol lady — but down deep they dont care
    As far as issue  3 — does it really matter — its a federal law — so how can a no vote really mean anything — and you are right  people only know what the pubs are telling them — there hasnt been not one piece of paper sent to me about issue 3
    Actually it helped us — my kid is back on my healthcare — so ” I ” pay for her until her 27th bday– this way the taxpayers arent picking up the tab if she were to become ill.
    She works at a library  they have NO healthcare unless you work 40 hours .. they make sure theres few that quailify for it too — mostly management people ,, of course

    VOTE NO  Issue 2   —   I already did !!

  • Fotogirlcb2002

    Doesnt that last name  say  it all…………

  • Fotogirlcb2002

    Yup —  happening all over —  I am so tired of the out and out lies  

  • The money going down the black hole is coming from a black hole…..a 527 PAC.  What you are watching is the 1% wandering around the country spending money based upon some ideology….no strategy involved.

  • Time to go for the jugular. 

  • People of Ohio are awake and are clearly seeing thru his lies..We have 18 days..18 days to VOTE EARLY..A NO ON ISSUE 2..N ON 11.8.11 THE citizens of Ohio need 2 understand that EVERY SINGLE VOTE MATTERS..UR VOTE  MAKES A DIFFERENCE. If u dread standn in line , or machines going down, then I encourage u all to VOTE EARLY..THE FRANKLIN COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS, on E. Broad st, caddy corner from OEA is open on Saturday…Go vote NO EARLY!THE WHOLE WORLDS WATCHN OHIO…LET’S SHOW THE WORLD what democracy looks like..VOTE NO..GO NOW..THANK U

  • WestParkGuy

    I have been going down to Lodi, Ashland, and Norwalk every weekend for the past 12 years. I consider this area to a rural bellwether area. They are typically farmers, and card carrying NRA members. They are not very liberal or progressive but they also are not hicks.

    Typically during election time I see a lot of conservative yard signs however this year I am seeing a lot of NO on Issue 2 signs. I have yet to see YES on Issue 2 in that area.

    I’m cautiously optimistic that this area may be the swing area that puts the nail in the coffin for SB5

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