In an incumbent race where the challenger is largely unknown, conventional polling wisdom is the incumbent’s scoring on whether people think the incumbent deserves re-election is the most accurate predictor of the general election result.  An incumbent in the low 40s or below is in serious trouble, but an incumbent with 50% or more is viewed as an almost certain bet to win re-election.

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Sherrod Brown would fall in the latter, but President Obama the former.  Brown is, by far, the most popular elected official in the State of Ohio as the only officeholder who boasts an approval rating above 50% (52%, if you want the precise figure.)  By a 50%/34% margin, Ohioans believe Sherrod Brown deserves re-election.  Again, normally this would be viewed as an incumbent being in a “safe” position for re-election.  That’s why Brown has a 21-point lead against former State Senator Kevin Coughlin and a thirteen-point lead over perennial candidate/part-time State Treasurer Josh Mandel.  The race is essentially unchanged since July, and the margin is essentially unchanged since May.  Brown has a ten-point lead with independents.

As for the President, he is still at his all-time low in polling in Ohio.  A majority of Ohioans disapprove of his job performance at 53% to 42%, and by a 51%-43% margin, Ohioans believe he does not deserve to be re-elected.  The poll indicates that the GOP nomination is essentially between Perry and Romney with nobody else being a factor (they did not test Christie.)  Perry leads in a two-person primary race between he and Romney.  However, it should be noted that this poll was conducted last week and most of the data had been collected before Thursday’s disastrous debate performance by Perry.  Regardless, the only bright spot for Obama is that the race shows him in a “within the margin of error” lead against both.  However, he’s polling at numbers where at this stage history would suggest the race favors the GOP candidate in Ohio slightly.  For the 2012 Presidential race, Ohio is in that tossup/Lean R category.  Obama still has a year, but he needs to fundamentally improve his standing in Ohio if he is banking on this state in his strategy for re-election.

  • So, people would actually rather have Bachmann or Perry for President?  That’s scary. Sherrod Brown is great.  Works for the People of Ohio.

  • Thanks for this, Plunderbund. Good to be informed. Even better to be aware.

    *sigh* I am tired of being accused of being
    “un-patriotic”. I am tired of being bullied and abused by the
    Teathuglicans. I will do everything in my power to help get Obama re-elected in
    2012… still,  I am tired.  And, still, I will keep fighting…
    because, I’m still right:

     

    Vote NO on Issue 2 in November 2011!

     

    Vote “YES” for Obama in November 2012!

  • Anonymous

    Sherrod Brown truly works and speaks for the middle class, and he deserves all of our support. 
     
    The only thing wrong with President Obama is that he has spent three years trying to play fair with a group of hoodlums who don’t want to play fair. They want to win.  He has done everything that could be done to be even handed and “Bony” and the Washington pirates have done all in their power to make his policies fail. Romney is an “Eggo” who wants it both ways and that saddle tramp Perry is all hat and no cattle.  It is not easy for a fair-minded person like the President to deal with snake-oil salesmen but if he gives them what they deserve I think he will come up in the polls considerably.  At least I hope so.
     
    Vote NO on Issue 2!!!

  • Anonymous

    Have you noticed the way The Dispatch is running the “Obama is down” story all the time now?  It fits right in with their narrative that Obama is out and SB5 is gaining popularity.  They have to avoid the Brown numbers because it would mentioning Josh Mandel and then having to explain why Brown is running so well against an empty suit. 

  • Annekarina

    If they can work on Christie, Dems can work on Hillary and come up with a winner.

  • Thanks for sharing info. Keep up the good work…

  • Anonymous

    We can expect many visits from the President in the coming months. His poll numbers in Ohio are the direct result of his failed attempts to work with the Party of NoWay.

    Senator Brown deserves to be re-elected for all the great work he does for the country. He should be the Majority Leader of the Senate.

  • daytonborn

    Sherrod Brown has a good heart but he can’t do math any better than any other incumbent politician when it comes to balancing the budget.

    Apparently the time for our President is as short as the list of accomplishments from one who’s party held a super majority in the Senate and a majority in the house for 2 solid years. Don’t blame the “party of no” for failure to succeed when holding an overwhelming majority.

    The key to every election is the independent vote.  As 33% of the voters, independents are increasingly attracted to fiscal conservatism and social liberalism. This ideology is only championed by Libertarians, a party that can’t get its act together. During a recession, the fiscal wins over the social.  In the absence of progress, that means “Bye Bye, Obama” and a large number of Dems as well.

  • Modern Esquire

    Obama’s gotten more done legislatively in four years than I believe just about any other President has.  Repeal DADT, Ledebetter Act, health care, etc.  One of the reasons the GOP is so energized against Obama is because he’s gotten so much done. 

    Fiscal conservatism typically DOESN’T sell during a recession.  FDR?  Reagan? 

  • daytonborn

    Well apparently that legislative success was not used to help the economy.  Modern Esquire doesn’t speak for the rest of the complainers criticizing the “party of no” for lack of progress.

    As for fiscal conservatives, FDR was elected because his opponent, Herbert Hoover was not a fiscal conservative in any way.  Reagan was THE fiscal conservative in his election over Carter.  Any way you paint Ronald Reagan, before or during his 2 terms, he was far more fiscally conservative than Jimmy Carter.

  • Ann

    Ohioans got it wrong when they vote for Kasich. If they vote for one of the current Republican contenders for President, I will be convinced they haven’t learned their lesson.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know, Daytonborn, Modernesquire does a pretty good job of speaking for most of us. 
     
    Anyway, I think that Obama has kept the pot from boiling over from a recession into a dark, dismal depression with no hope of recovery.  Let’s face facts – the tea-baggers are totally wrong headed and frankly, I think they are also running out of wiggle room on their support from the uninformed.  Those back yard bozos are going the way of the fuzzy mammoths. 
     
    By the way, have I told you that I don’t like the tea baggers?

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know, Daytonborn, Modernesquire does a pretty good job of speaking for most of us. 
     
    Anyway, I think that Obama has kept the pot from boiling over from a recession into a dark, dismal depression with no hope of recovery.  Let’s face facts – the tea-baggers are totally wrong headed and frankly, I think they are also running out of wiggle room on their support from the uninformed.  Those back yard bozos are going the way of the fuzzy mammoths. 
     
    By the way, have I told you that I don’t like the tea baggers?

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know, Daytonborn, Modernesquire does a pretty good job of speaking for most of us. 
     
    Anyway, I think that Obama has kept the pot from boiling over from a recession into a dark, dismal depression with no hope of recovery.  Let’s face facts – the tea-baggers are totally wrong headed and frankly, I think they are also running out of wiggle room on their support from the uninformed.  Those back yard bozos are going the way of the fuzzy mammoths. 
     
    By the way, have I told you that I don’t like the tea baggers?

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know, Daytonborn, Modernesquire does a pretty good job of speaking for most of us. 
     
    Anyway, I think that Obama has kept the pot from boiling over from a recession into a dark, dismal depression with no hope of recovery.  Let’s face facts – the tea-baggers are totally wrong headed and frankly, I think they are also running out of wiggle room on their support from the uninformed.  Those back yard bozos are going the way of the fuzzy mammoths. 
     
    By the way, have I told you that I don’t like the tea baggers?

  • Modern Esquire

    If Reagan was “way more the fiscal conservative than Carter,” then why did the federal deficit explode during the Reagan Administration?  During Carter, the deficit grew something like $18 billion.  Under Reagan’s first four years alone, $134 billion.  That’s over seven times as much as it grew under the Carter Administration.

    To be completely honest, I don’t know how anyone can possibly paint Reagan as more fiscally conservative than Carter was, unless you use fact-free paint.  Are you using fact-free paint?

  • It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

  • Anonymous

    Who increased the debt?

  • Green Iris

    “Drilling holes with a CNC drill press is faster and better than with a hand drill and it requires fewer, less skilled workers.”

    CNC machinists aren’t skilled? Do you have any idea how many companies are looking for skilled CNC machinists and not line workers?

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