Every month the Office of Budget and Management releases a financial report that outlines how the economy is doing at the national and state level as well as how tax collections (revenues) for the State are going compared to what was projected in the current State budget.

And a few days ago, the OBM released their report for April and concluded that President Obama and Governor Strickland got the jobs done:

Economic Performance Overview

  • Real GDP increased by 3.1% in the fourth quarter after a lull in the middle two quarters of the year. Continued acceleration in consumer spending accounted for essentially all of the growth. The consensus is that the economy will expand at a somewhat faster pace throughout 2011.
  • Ohio employment increased by 13,800 in February after a 34,100 increase in January.
  • The Ohio unemployment rate decreased for the twelfth month in a row to 9.2 percent.
  • Leading economic indicators remain consistent with continuing economic recovery both nationally and in Ohio, but point to a moderate rate of growth.

The level of real GDP increased to a new all-time high that exceeds the peak prior to the 2007-09 recession by 0.1%, marking the technical
transition from the recovery to the expansion phase of the business cycle. 

Compared with a year earlier, real GDP increased 2.8% – the fastest pace during a 4-quarter span since the 3.0% rise in the second quarter of 2006.

In other words, while Kasich and his friends were filling the airwaves with ads claiming that Governor Strickland “didn’t get the jobs done,” he really was and as a result Ohio and the nation has already transitioned from the recovery phase of the economic cycle to the expansion phaseThe report  goes on to say that the first quarter is expected to be only slightly worse than the dynamic growth we saw in the fourth quarter last year.

Unemployment nationally, which peaked in October 2009 as the recession was ending, has dropped in the past sixteen months by 1.3%, which the OBM concludes is typical of most recoveries. 

And here’s what Kasich’s OBM said about Ohio’s unemployment:

During 2010, Ohio employment increased by a total of 31,000 jobs, rising during the winter and spring and remaining flat through year end.

Employment increased in most sectors during the twelve months ending in February. Declines in employment occurred in government (-1,500), financial services (-1,400) and information (-400). Increases occurred in all other sectors, led by professional business services (+22,900), education and health services (+21,000) and leisure and hospitality (+15,000).

The Ohio unemployment rate fell again in February to 9.2% from the high for the cycle of 10.6% in March – the twelfth consecutive monthly decline and the seventh consecutive reading below 10.0 percent.

Please note that public sector workers lost more jobs last year than any other sector.  Mention that the next time some proponent of SB 5 says public employees have been “immune” to the effects of this recession.  And note, we’ve had a year of constant falling unemployment, resulting in an annual drop of 1.4% (slightly faster than the nation as a whole.)

Remember how during the campaign Kasich, Portman, and the rest of the Ohio Republican Party suggested that Ohio was being left behind economically compared to other States in the region or the rest of the country?  Remember how Kasich used to talk about how much better Indiana, in particular, was doing under Mitch Daniels than Ohio under Strickland?  Remember how we said that Ted Strickland was going to beat Daniels on job creation?

Well, here’s Kasich’s OBM on the matter:

During the twelve months ending in February, employment increased in each of the contiguous states to Ohio. On a year-over year basis, employment increased 1.9% in Pennsylvania, 1.8% in Michigan, 1.7% in Kentucky, 1.6% in Ohio, and 0.9% and 0.7% in West Virginia and Indiana, respectively. (emphasis added.)

For the Ohio and contiguous state region, employment increased 1.6% during the most recent twelve months, compared with a 0.9% increase for all states outside the region combined. The year-over-year change in employment in Ohio and the contiguous states has exceeded growth
outside the region during the fourteen months from January 2010 through February. The last time employment in the region grew faster than in the rest of the nation for as long as fourteen months was February 1993.

Under Governor Ted Strickland, Ohio’s employment was growing over twice the rate of Indiana’s last year and nearly twice the rate of the rest of the country.  We’re getting rid of the Ohio Department of Development for JobsOhio so that we can model ourselves after Indiana’s economic development.  Think about that for a second.

I testified against JobsOhio because I challenged the Administration’s talking point that Indiana’s privatized systems was beating Ohio in creating jobs.  I even debated the Republican House’s Majority Whip on this site on this point.  And this week, John Kasich’s Office of Management and Budget unknowingly concedes I was right: in 2010, Ohio was vastly outpacing Indiana in job growth.

Did Ohio lose a lot of jobs under Strickland?   Sure.  We had a recession that started in 2008 and didn’t end until November 2009 in this country, and Ohio got hit hard since it’s the seventh largest State in the nation as a result and is still a manufacturing State.  But was Ohio positioned better than most State in the country to recover as quickly as possible?  Yes, says Kasich’s own Office of Budget & Management.

Ohio’s wage and incomes grew last year at the fastest rate they’ve seen since 2006.  After years in which Ohio’s wage growth fell behind national growth, Ohio’s wage growth matched the national growth rates under Strickland:


So what does all this positive Ohio economic news from 2010 mean for the budget?  Well, according to OBM, the State collected nearly a BILLION ($823 million)  more in revenues than projected in March alone.  This is a continuing trend in which a better than projected economic recovery in Ohio has allowed the State to beat revenue forecasts for the past three quarters of the current budget.

As a result, the State of Ohio is on pace to collect over $600 million more than projected in revenues over the current biennium.  The State has taken in nearly a billion ($939.2 million) more in revenues that it had at this point a year earlier.  And the growth is mostly fueled by better than expected receipts in sales taxes and income taxes.

Kasich LiedAll John Kasich has to do is sit back, stay out of the way, and Ohio’s on pace for a remarkable recovery.  We don’t need SB 5 or any of the things to bring Ohio to the forefront of the economic recovery because we’re already there.  Remember, Kasich’s own budget is based on the economic assumption that the economy will actually do slightly worse under Kasich that it did post-recession under Strickland.  I know some of this is pretty dense material, but in the end, what we have is an Administration that is admitting in dry, elevated economic wonk speak that their entire basis of being in power was based on a fraud/sham.

Just imagine what would happen if the traditional Ohio media pointed this out.


    kasich is a dam disgrace to ohio and its hardworking people. we will never get any where with this bozo in the gov. seat. TIME TO GET HIM OUT,NO MATTER HOW WE DO IT.

  • guest

    My local R’s I like to argue with NEED to be reading this… they absolutely need to read this. I hope my local paper picks up on this, but they seem to have been scared into tea party-like thinking at times…

  • Angry Buckeye

    Where is the Ohio media on this stuff? Aren’t there ANY newspapers out there who don’t kowtow to the Republicans? People believe what they read and see printed. Information like this needs to get out asap before Kasich and Friends put a spin on it – and you know they will.

  • Annekarima

    Yes, it matters how it is done. We are still civil in this state.

  • I want to be clear on your argument methods here. Any good economic news is because of what Kasich may or may not do. Any bad economic news is Ted’s fault. That about right?

  • Anonymous

    Again, read this article again. Kasich’s own OBM says we’ve got nearly twice the jobs growth rate as the nation. Oh, and unemployment in March dropped .3% from February down to 8.9%, putting it on par with the national average which we really didn’t have under Taft. In the “past decade” which would include mostly of Taft, Ohio lagged behind the rest of the nation. That’s not the case with this recovery at all.

    This current recovery is only slighly behind the dynamite ninteen month recovery we saw in the State in 1983-1984.

    We were already moving forward and making this State great again under Ted Strickland. The economic numbers don’t lie.

  • Anonymous

    The Dayton Daily News oversimplifies things a bit. It is true that most of the jobs have been created in the service industry. However, that’s a continuation of a national trend we saw BEFORE the recession. Furthermore, one out of every six new jobs that have been created in Ohio have been the good paying manufacturing jobs.

    Ideally, would I like to see that ratio differently? Sure. But our national economy has long been one that its globalistic free trade policies results in our national economy turning out more lower paying service jobs than higher paying manufacturing jobs. I’m not sure what any Governor can really do to successfully swim against the global tide.

    I’ve yet to see Kasich propose, let alone enact, anything that has made Ohio more attractive to manufacturers, either.

  • Anonymous

    Wow, looks like you’re starting to lose it as you see your conservative world view crumble in front of your eyes. Despite your insistance that what you say is true, it’s not, unless you live in opposite land where Reagan didn’t raise taxes during a recession.

    Anyways, the reality is that the conservative, Tea Party-supporting think tank Buckeye Institute calls Strickland the most fiscally conservative Governor Ohio’s ever had (including Kasich.) He kept spending down and cut $2B in general revenue spending in his first and second budgets. Under Kasich, Ohio will have never spent more money.

    It’s no coincidence that Ohio’s manufacturing sector has been seeing job GAINS under Strickland when it saw massive losses under GOP rule. Strickland reversed a major GOP policy initiative regarding electricity deregulation that was poised to crush the manufacturing sector with across the board massive utility rate hikes. That’s not just my position, that’s the official position of the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association, a traditionally pro-GOP group.

    He took Ohio from the back of the pack to the forefront in the nation in the implementation and development of commercialized applications of the next gen in renewable and alternative energy generation.

    He got voters to expand Third Fronteir before the recession, he reversed the policies of the Taft and Voinovich Administration by fully utilizing federal funding for job retraining programs, with an emphasis on retraining those who lost their jobs (Kasich wants to change the emphasis to essentially subsidize company’s retraining programs by focusing on having the State pay for the retraining of those who already have a job.)

    Because of Strickland’s policies Ohio received the Governor’s Cup by Site Selection Magazine every year he was in office, and according to John Kasich own OBM, the Department of Development and Ted Strickland were creating twice as many jobs as Indiana and the rest of the nation.

    Those are actual facts. You can look them up. They are objective data points. You, on the other hand, just spewed forth unproven partisan talking points. The voters didn’t vote. Most stayed home. John Kasich needed a massive pro-GOP tide to help him limp across to victory to hold Ted Strickland off. Only Mike DeWine did worse statewide of the entire GOP ticket than Kasich, who didn’t even manage to get a majority of the votes casts.

  • Anonymous

    Oh, and by the way, Ted Strickland left office with a higher approval rating than Kasich has yet to even come close to seeing and would crush Kasich by fifteen points in the rematch, according to the most recent polling.

    Yeah, John Kasich is that amazing. I’m sorry that it upsets you to see this economic analysis that suggests that Ohio was actually ahead of the rest of the nation in economic recovery, but I didn’t write it: John Kasich’s OBM did.

    And they’re not alone in what you wish to pretend is only a myth. Here’s a quote from today’s Columbus Dispatch:

    [Huntington Bancshares senior economist George] Mokrzan said that the closeness of the Ohio and U.S. rates shows that the recovery has been somewhat better in the state that it has nationally.


    You’re the one engaged in historic revisionism. I’ve been writing what actually happened and is the prevailing view of economists both within the Kasich Adminsitration and leading private sector economists in Ohio. If you can’t handle that, you can go back to masterbating to Ayn Rand.

  • The Other Paper is pretty good about holding *all* of the Columbus politicians feet to the fire.

  • ^^This. Although I doubt I’d shed many tears if someone popped Gov. Kasich, is it ABSOLUTELY and UNEQUIVOCALLY the wrong thing to do. If we suddenly decide that we don’t like the politician we elected, where does shooting him leave us? Rwanda’s unemployment is pretty high, too, iirc.

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