This morning, we got more data from the latest Quinnpiac Poll.  And to discuss what is going on in Ohio that has led to John Kasich’s poor poll numbers last night on Rachel Maddow was the most popular officeholder in Ohio, Sherrod Brown.

Brown has a 43% approval/27% disapproval rating.  Against an unnamed GOP opponent, Brown wins 45% to 29%.  Voter also feel just about the same when asked if Brown deserves to be re-elected or not.  Just as with PPP, Brown now has an advantage with Independents.

Brown has a better approval rating than freshman Senator Rob Portman, who has 30%/25% approval rating which is actually a slight drop since January when he polled at 34%-16%.  Portman’s disapproval rating took a remarkable nine-point jump in two months.

Brown looked like he might be in serious trouble come 2012, but PPP and Quinnipiac shows that Brown’s fortunes have been improving.  While any incumbent would much prefer polling above 50% at any given time, Nate Silver explained that an incumbent in Sherrod Brown’s situation will win re-election nearly two out of three times.  Brown isn’t out of the woods entirely, and a lot can change in the course of the next twenty months, but Brown is looking less vulnerable then he did just months ago.

As for Obama, he’s at a spilt.  His approval ratings and re-elect numbers are at a split.  This puts him behind Sherrod and Portman as the most popular pols in Ohio with John Kasich way back.  At issue for Obama in Ohio is a tug-of-war between Ohioans heart and mind.  More Ohioans (73%) like Obama personally than like his policies (44%).

Given four choices to describe their feelings about Obama:

  • 43 percent like him personally and like his policies;
  • 30 percent like him personally but not his policies;
  • 1 percent like his policies but not him;
  • 21 percent don’t like him or his policies.

John Kasich doesn’t have this problem.  For the most part, Ohioans’ hearts and minds agree on Kasich—they don’t like either him personally or his policies:

  • 26 percent like Kasich personally and like his policies;
  • 17 percent like him personally but not his policies;
  • 7 percent like his policies but not him;
  • 34 percent don’t like him or his policies.
  • Just how unpopular is John Kasich in Ohio right now?  Obama’s biggest political liability in Ohio is that only 44% like his policies.  But that’s still more than the percentage of people who like Kasich at all (43%) and Ohioans like Obama’s polices by 11 points more than they like Kasich’s.

    Now, I really need to tell you something about that last line there… see those 34% of folks who don’t like him or his policies?  That’s pollster speak for “hates a politician’s very existence and everything he stands for.”  Barack Obama has been in office two years, and only 21% of Ohioans don’t like him and his policies.  John Kasich has been in office three months and he’s already got more than a third of the electorate hating him to the core.  Once you reach a point that you dislike a politician on both a personal and philosophical issue, you are highly unlikely to change that opinion into support.  I mean this is the hard core opposition.  It’s kind of locked in.  For Kasich to potentially already have lost 1/3 of the electorate this quickly is insanity.  It means that Obama is in much better shape already for re-election next year than John Kasich is just three months into his term and three years to go before he’s on the ballot.

    I’ll say this again, this is further proof that the smartest thing the Statehouse Republicans can do is a) draw Statehouse maps that create a firewall for as many incumbents as they can; b) start asserting some independence and distance from Kasich ASAP.

    Attention Republicans: By any measure Barack Obama and his policies are more popular than John Kasich or his policies, which kind of makes this 2010 campaign video by the Kasich campaign sad:

    John Kasich and the Republican governors in Wisconsin and Michigan are single-handedly on pace to hand Obama the Midwest, and thus, the entire 2012 Presidential election. 

    • mvirenicus

      only someone with profound mental retardation fails to see that it doesn’t matter who is elected, or to which of the two major parties they belong. nothing changes. capitalism must be overthrown.

    • Guest

      Ah, my new phrase: “Radioactive radical Republican Governor John Kasich of Ohio hates women, children, black people, working people, guess that is most people in Ohio.

      I am reminded of that song “Radioactive”….it was a one hit wonder in the 80’s I think?
      LOL! you made my day.

    • Anonymous

      The point you miss is that with Obama people’s personal attitude towards him is detached from how they view his policies. That can be a problem if voters vote more based on policy than personality. Kasich doesn’t have this problem because for the most part how you view his policies dictates how you feel personally about him. If you like his policies, you generally like him personally. If you don’t like his policies, you generally dislike him.

      And a 43%-41% split does not necessarily mean more Ohioans personally like him as that’s within the polls margin of error. Regardless the fact that voters are essentially split on whether they like him so early in his term is not a good thing. Nor is the fact that 51% don’t like his policies. This is not what you expect to see in public opinion polling for a new Administration in its third month in office.

      You can spin it all you want, but the end result is exactly what I said: both Kasich and his policies are vastly more unpopular than Obama and his policies.

    • mvirenicus

      if you consider a band made up of jimmy page (led zeppelin) and paul rodgers (bad company) that had two charted singles as “the firm” and sold out arena concerts all over the world as “one hit wonders.”

    • mvirenicus

      they were popular musicians. now go fuck yourself.

    • tshaw1

      Heck Charlie Manson would get better numbers, I don’t think I recall an Ohio Governor being generally disliked as much as King John is and by so many different factions. And no wonder he’s not liked personally he appears to be an a$$hole to everyone across the board!

    • Ilovetoledo
    • Family of disabled citizen.

      If you had a child with disabilities, you wouldn’t throw around the phrase “retard”, you b*tch.

    • mvirenicus

      oh i’m so sorry to offend your sensibilities. now please return to your viewing pleasure as your government bombs yet another country, you fecking retarded monster!

    • Anonymous

      get back on your meds dude.

    • buckeyekelly

      With all due respect (which is minimal considering your hateful speech found here), if you have a differing opinion that could be expressed using intelligent, grammatically correct, polite words and phrases, I’m certain both the authors and readers of this site would welcome the thoughtful debate.

      If all you have are insults and a potty-mouth, please go elsewhere with your small-minded, petty statements that add nothing to the conversation other than proving how easy it will be to use intelligence over non-substance come next November.

    • mvirenicus

      whatever it is you wrote here is completely incomprehensible. must be a college student.

    • mvirenicus

      haven’t you buckeyes heard? ohio is known as “the mississippi of the midwest” throughout the country. no basketball team or coach sweater vest is gonna change that. time to pump up the meds, booooyz!

    • mvirenicus

      to do what? this sounds like a cry of desperation. countn on sherrod to do what?

    • Anonymous

      Um, John Kasich has never done a damn thing to protect the country from terrorists. The stock market has done better under Obama than Bush. And Obama has been far more successful in defeating terrorists than Bush ever was. But thanks for reading! You might figure out if you do more of it you learn stuff, too.

    • Anonymous

      Are you ok?

    • mvirenicus

      i don’t think he was serious.

    • mvirenicus

      lol

    • buckeyekelly

      Aw…jealous much? Let me use small words so you can understand.

      Unless you are able to comment using facts and not insults, you are not welcome here.

      To phrase former Vice President Cheney…oh, too easy. Never mind!

    • Anonymous

      Jimmy Page was the guitarist on that song. He’s hardly a one hit wonder.

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