The University of Cincinnati’s Ohio Poll was just released.
It shows Kasich with a 40% approval rating (ten points higher than January’s Quinnipiac), but with 47% of Ohioans disapproving (twenty-five points higher than January’s Quinnipiac.)
Not since Governor Dick Celeste has the Ohio Poll registered a lower approval rating for first-term Ohio Governor this early in his term. (Strickland polled at 68%; Voinovich at 61%; and Taft at 48%.) Not since Dick Celeste in 1983 has a first-term Governor been under water in his approval/disapproval rating (32%/45%) this early in his Administration.
Kasich’s approval rating takes a jump with registered voters coming in at 42% to 46%. However, that’s about the best news Kasich gets besides his 65% approval rating among Republicans. Independents, a large part of Kasich’s reason for winning, have abandoned him, giving him an approval rating of only 30% to 55% disapproving.
Kasich’s handing on the economy also gets low marks similar to his approval rating: 38% approving; 49% disapproving.
Here’s the SB 5 effect: Kasich gets a 21% approval rating to 72% disapproval rating among union households that is worse than his 23%/66% approval/disapproval rating among Democrats.
Kasich likes to brag about how he’s visited Cleveland nearly a dozen times already since becoming Governor. It’s not helping him much. The NEO region tags his approval/disapproval 36% to 51%; the worst in the State that has a statistically reliable sample (the SEO region comes in at 16%/74%, but the Ohio Poll notes its sample in the region is too small to be considered statistically reliable.) Kasich doesn’t even get a majority of SWO voters, the GOP’s geographical base, to approve of his job performance.
On the question of the budget, 54% of registered voters would prefer to see the State’s budget balanced with a combination of tax increases and spending cuts over purely a reduction of spending 35%. In other words, voters aren’t likely going to like what they see in Kasich’s budget.
The good news for the Governor is that it appears in NWO, the jury is still out on him. The bad news is that African-American voters, female voters,voters under 65 (particularly young voters), and union voters all disapprove of Kasich’s job performance and performance on the economy.
The fact that Kasich’s disapproval rating is five points higher than his approval rating in Southwest Ohio is very surprising. You almost have to wonder how Kasich is able to keep an approval rating of 51% to 41% in central Ohio (thanks, Columbus Dispatch and its related media companies.)
Kasich can rest assured that he, like Celeste, has three more years to turn his poll numbers around before the 2014 campaign starts to heat up. Unfortunately for him, though, he’s about to release a politically unpopular budget in which he has no popular support and a bunch of nervous Republicans legislators who don’t all have the luxury of waiting until 2014 to see if Kasich’s numbers improve.
In other words, this isn’t exactly a great time for Kasich to have bad poll numbers.