So far, we are the only media outlet that has discussed the possible negative political repercussions for the Ohio GOP in 2012 caused by SB 5. One newspaper columnist I respect greatly, actually suggested that SB 5 will give Shannon Jones a boost to become a potential statewide candidate. Seriously?
Regardless, we have our first objective data to suggest that going against collective bargaining is hurting the reach of the Republican party. Admittedly Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (PPP) recently did a poll in Wisconsin to ask how the people there would have voted if they could “redo the election.”
For the most part, there was little to no change, except in one significant category:
[I]n households where there is a union member, voters now say they’d go for Barrett by a 31 point margin, up quite a bit from the 14 point advantage they report having given him in November.
It’s actually Republicans, more so than Democrats or independents, whose shifting away from Walker would allow Barrett to win a rematch if there was one today. Only 3% of the Republicans we surveyed said they voted for Barrett last fall but now 10% say they would if they could do it over again. That’s an instance of Republican union voters who might have voted for the GOP based on social issues or something else last fall trending back toward Democrats because they’re putting pocketbook concerns back at the forefront and see their party as at odds with them on those because of what’s happened in the last month.
We all know that whatever the GOP passes, it’ll likely be subject to a repeal referendum. Whether that vote occurs this year or next isn’t going to matter. This is the kind of legislation that people affected by it don’t forget soon.
By “nationalizing” what is occurring in Wisconsin and Ohio by having it spread to other States and having the RNC and Speaker Boehner (although he has YET to propose the same thing at a federal level) endorse and promote it, anger over this is across the Republican brand.
Whatever happens with SB 5, the Republican-voting union members are going to remember this for a very long time, and they aren’t likely to vote Republican again. The damage is done (unless the bill is defeated) and it will be lasting and up and down the ticket for years.
Enjoy passing SB 5 Republicans, it’s probably your certificate back to the minority.