I wrote this headline because not a single Ohio newspaper will.
For the less sophisticated partisans among us, I’ll give you this alternative headline instead:
Hey Republicans, Obama more popular in Ohio than Portman, Boehner or Kasich! Suck it!
The latest Quinnipiac Poll out today shows Obama getting a 49%-46% approval/disapproval rating, a reversal of his 45%-49% rating back in June. 48% of Ohioans believe Obama deserve to be re-elected, and he’d get 44% of the vote against 39% of the vote against a generic Republican candidate. With numbers like these, you could justify putting Ohio in the “Lean Obama” category for 2012. John Kasich’s plurality victory in a low turnout election coupled with his anemic poll numbers doesn’t portend him being a counterweight to Obama’s popularity next year so far.
John Boehner, the Speaker of the House, is virtually unknown to his fellow Ohioans. He gets 27% favorable rating, 18% unfavorable rating with a majority of Ohioans not having any opinion of him.
[UPDATE:] Speaker Boehner engages in a clear misrepresentation of today’s Quinnipiac Poll:
The problem is that Quinnipiac, itself, disagrees with Boehner’s assertion:
“Voters also split on the health care reform bill, with 46 percent who want it repealed and 44 percent who want to keep the measure.”
Ohioans are more unified in ending the war in Afghanistan than seeing the health care reform bill repealed.
Portman polls better than Kasich or Boehner. He’s already getting a 34% to 16% disapproval.
Sherrod Brown has seen an uptick in his popularity as well. His approval rating is at 45% to 25%. Brown beats “generic Republican” 45% to 33%—a twelve-point margin. It’s not an ideal place for Brown to be, but it’s decent enough to say that he’s got a good chance of being re-elected next year.
So despite the conventional wisdom of all things political in Ohio, the reality is that independent public opinion polling shows that Democrats are substantially more popular than Republicans in the following order:
- President Obama
- Senator Sherrod Brown
- Ted Strickland (1-3 in the high to mid 40s in approval.)
- Rob Portman (mid-30s)
- John Kasich (30% approval)
- John Boehner (sub-30s favorability)
Granted, Portman, Kasich and Boehner have low numbers because they’re largely unknown, but that’s just further shows that the notion that Ohioans overwhelmingly approve of Republican figures over Democratic ones is bunk. They’re largely unknown to the more popular and known Democrats in the State.
Ohio went red last November because blue sat home licking their wounds prematurely. Simple as that.
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