Three for three in the past twenty-four hours.   Yet another poll shows Governor Strickland in a dead heat with former Congressman/Lehman Brothers executive John Kasich.

But this time it’s Quinnipiac?!?  Kasich leads now only by 47% to 46%.  A virtually tie.  A week ago, Quinny had it 49% to 43%.

"The governor’s race is a statistical tie. It could go either way," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Ted Strickland has come from far back. The question is whether he can get over the hump. He has momentum on his side. John Kasich has the historical tendency of undecided voters to break against well-known incumbents at the very end of a campaign."

Strickland’s gone in a week from where his net favorability was down to even.  Kasich’s support among likely Republican voters is softening.  There can be only one plausible explanation for this:  the Kasich’s campaign attempt to neutralize the “gun issue” by getting a surrogate to file an Ohio Elections complaint over it (only to see a bipartisan majority of the OEC dismiss it for lack of probable cause for a violation) last week backfired horribly.

Quinnipiac has been the pro-Kasich outlier of this cycle.  Now, they aren’t drinking the Kool Aid.  They’ve gone from showing Kasich up seventeen points in mid-September (his biggest lead in any poll) to virtually tied now.

That is an epic collapse in the polling.  It’s all down to GOTV.

We should get the last Ohio Poll in a few minutes.  Stay tuned….

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  • Dave

    Epic collapse indeed. My call based on these polls and my read is that the final result will be Kasich 52 Strickland 48. Based on the last few undecideds breaking against the incumbent because of the economy, saving him. Kasich has done his darn best to lose this election but will fail in this as well.

    I asked my wife to name one thing Kasich was going to do as governor (she is non-political) and she came up blank. Epic campaign file to penetrate the public consciousness.

    Oh and BTW, Now you like Quinnipiac? They were solid in September and they are solid now.

    If it goes the other way, the OHGOP will have major egg on their faces and it couldn’t happen to more deserving folk. Even so Kasich dramatically underperforming Portman and just about every other GOP should get someone on the clue train. Eagerly awaiting Tues night…

  • I think that’s a pretty good call. I think there could be as many late breaking against Kasich though. The polls are actually screaming this. One thing is very clear and that is that this race is going to probably be closer than it has any right to be in this climate. I credit this to an absolutely amazing campaign by the Strickland folks and several big missteps by the Kasich campaign.

    I think your numbers are pretty reasoned though. I’m going to have a hard time calling this race, but if you asked me what I really thought I’d only say that we’re going to be up REALLY late tomorrow night.

    I actually think it could do the Ohio GOP more good if Kasich loses, in a “be careful what you wish for” kind of way.

    Getting Cordray, Pepper, and Strickland through in this climate would be an EPIC WIN. We’ll know soon…

  • Dave
  • Yup. That’s up to 25% from single digits in like a week. It’s a tossup. Down to the ground game now. Persuasion is over. All grassroots, baby!

  • Modern Esquire

    David- Silver’s models are, by design, resistent to sudden change in the polling. Despite that, it’s the fast moving race in the Democrats or Republicans favor in the gubernatorial picture by far. Of all the gubernatorial races Silver ranks as still competitive, the Ohio Governor’s race is now the least competitive. The GOP has a better shot at picking up Illinois than Ohio right now, according to Silver.

    His election night projections are within the margins of error.

    No, I still don’t like Quinnipiac. Just because I wrote about them, doesn’t mean I like them. I wrote about Quinnipiac in September when there numbers were crap. The point of the post is that even they can’t hide the momentum Strickland had in October going into Tuesday.

  • Brianh

    Actually, the last few cycles have proven the old myth about the undecided vote to be just that a myth. The reality is that the undecideds pretty much split evenly when they finally vote. However, I think the Democrats have a good GOTV operation for tomorrow and will outperform the projected turnout in the polls.

    Strickland <2%. First time, I've said Strickland will win since May 2009. (I've said COULD a bunch of times since then, but this is the first time I see a clearer path of victory for him than Kasich.)

    The Fox News poll (which I wouldn't put too much stock in since it suggests Kasich is LEADING with early voters) shows roughly only a third of voters believes he has a clear plan for the economy. As a challenger, the idea that he didn't have to have a detailed plan that he could sell is the biggest miscalculation of the economy.

  • If the election is this close and Strickland wins, I can guarantee that Kasich will force a recount and probably already has a team of lawyers to file lawsuits all over the state to get votes thrown out. The pressure will be on Jennifer Brunner. We should also be sure to have poll watchers everywhere to catch attempted sabotage of the machines. I remember when I lived in NC during a Jesse Helms re-election, that broken voting machines were happening in all the metropolitan areas of the state, cities that all had a decidedly liberal bent. Nothing in the rural pro-helms polling places were reported. Funny how Jesse won again well past what polls were predicting.

  • Jrmiller6020

    I just returned from working the phones for Ted and Rep Kilroy and had a chance to speak with a Kilroy campaign official. He told me some interesting stuff: 1) Kilroy has the best grassroots operation in America according to data collected by the DCCC. On just 1 DAY alone (Oct 30), her campaign made 52435 calls and knocked on 10074 doors. This official told me point blank Mary Jo will win re-election. Understand, she is up against a well funded Chamber and former bank lobbyist crony, Steve Stivers 2) He then told me Ted’d latest internals has him UP BY 5 Points. A call received today from “Our Future Ohio PAC” cited their latest poll showing Ted up by 2. It’s all about turnout now- if we get it we win. Keep hope alive…Jim, Columbus

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