Three for three in the past twenty-four hours. Yet another poll shows Governor Strickland in a dead heat with former Congressman/Lehman Brothers executive John Kasich.
But this time it’s Quinnipiac?!? Kasich leads now only by 47% to 46%. A virtually tie. A week ago, Quinny had it 49% to 43%.
"The governor’s race is a statistical tie. It could go either way," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Ted Strickland has come from far back. The question is whether he can get over the hump. He has momentum on his side. John Kasich has the historical tendency of undecided voters to break against well-known incumbents at the very end of a campaign."
Strickland’s gone in a week from where his net favorability was down to even. Kasich’s support among likely Republican voters is softening. There can be only one plausible explanation for this: the Kasich’s campaign attempt to neutralize the “gun issue” by getting a surrogate to file an Ohio Elections complaint over it (only to see a bipartisan majority of the OEC dismiss it for lack of probable cause for a violation) last week backfired horribly.
Quinnipiac has been the pro-Kasich outlier of this cycle. Now, they aren’t drinking the Kool Aid. They’ve gone from showing Kasich up seventeen points in mid-September (his biggest lead in any poll) to virtually tied now.
That is an epic collapse in the polling. It’s all down to GOTV.
We should get the last Ohio Poll in a few minutes. Stay tuned….