I don’t normally post press releases in full, but this one seems like a good candidate.

Memorandum Re: OH Gov Race

To:          Interested Parties
Fr:           Aaron Pickrell, Strickland for Governor
RE:          State of the Race
Date:      October 29, 2010

Heading into the final weekend of the Ohio gubernatorial campaign, Ted Strickland is STRONGLY positioned to be re-elected.  Our internal polling has held steady for the last few weeks and at the end of this week, Ted holds a 4 point lead (46-42) over Congressman Kasich in a 2-way race and a 5 point lead (43-38) over Congressman Kasich in a 4-way race.

We attribute this lead to a few factors:

An increasing recognition that Ted’s investment in new industries and education are beginning to work for Ohio and a rising distrust of Congressman Kasich resulting in his unfavorable ratings now matching his favorable ratings.

A  reenergized Democratic electorate that is rejecting going back to Wall Street values.

A large and robust coordinated campaign, spearheaded by the Ohio Democratic Party.
Additionally, with our superior GOTV operation and early vote efforts, we are going into Election Day in a very strong position:

Democrats continue to vote early in larger numbers than Republicans.
More Democrats than Republicans have requested ballots. [Columbus Dispatch, 10/25/10]
More Democrats than Republicans have returned ballots. [Columbus Dispatch, 10/25/10]
More Democrats than Republicans have voted early in person.
By our tabulations, five times more infrequent voting Democrats – whose turnout is key to our victory – have voted early than have infrequent voting Republicans.

By an 11-point margin, more Democrats than Republicans are voting early.

To date, slightly over 900,000 Ohio voters have requested mail in ballots. Democrats lead in these requests 41 to 30 percent.
So far, of the ballots cast either in person or by mail, Democrats lead 44 to 33 percent.
Republicans concede that they are behind in Early Vote returns. [Wall Street Journal, 10/21/10]
We continue to add capacity to our superior ground game that will carry us to victory next Tuesday.

The Ohio Democratic Coordinated Campaign has been called the strongest in the country. [Chuck Todd, MSNBC, 10/22/10; E.J. Dionne, Washington Post, 10/21/10]
Our Republican opponents admit they lack the resources to match our organizational strength. [Columbus Dispatch, 10/20/10]
With 300 staff and tens of thousands of volunteers, we have assembled the most robust Get Out the Vote operation in Ohio mid-term election history.

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  • Jrmiller6020

    Modern, curious why they are releasing this internal poll now. Is it because the final CD poll Sun will probably still show a Kasich lead of 2-6% and they want to minimize Dem discouragement? If the poll is accurate, why release it at all and risk arousing/motivating GOP voters more? What turnout model is Ted’s pollster using and why do they think it’s more reliable then all the other polls’ models?…Jim, Columbus

  • Delco

    I would think it fairly obvious that the concern is more about getting the Dems to turn out than worrying about “arousing/motivating GOP voters more”. Jim, I am always curious when I read your posts. I sometimes wonder if you’re some kind of poser. The Dem’s pollster is the Dem’s pollster. Obviously they believe it is fairly accurate or they would not be paying for it. With turnout expected at 52% and with more registered dem voters than Rs, whatever the poll model, the Ds can do it- if our voters show. Even dumb old me understands the simple math.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t the answers, but that’s not going to stop me from giving my conjecture as usual.

    It’s not unusual at all for a campaign to issue a state of the race. The fact that Kasich’s campaign is now silent on their internals after a week of Strickland/Obama bashing confirms that this race is either Strickland is ahead or not.

    The Dispatch mail in poll on Sunday will likely be a disaster, but I think it’s also because this week the public polls this week have been from the ones that have historically favored Kasich more than most (Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA in particular.)

    GOP voters are as motivated as they can get. The Strickland campaign can’t make it worse by releasing a poll showing them pulling ahead. The issue is our base needs to still be fired up, and I’d bet they did this to tell Democrats that they can make a huge difference come Tuesday if they do GOTV.

    These polls aren’t done to be released by the campaign. They’re done to make advertising and ground gound and communication adjustments. That’s why pundits like Chuck Todd and Stu Rothernberg don’t discount internal polling. And, frankly, campaign pollsters care more about their credibility.

    For the most part, since the Strickland campaign started releasing their numbers, they’ve been eerily predictive. They showed the Kasich Krash in September before any other public polling.

    I don’t have their crosstabs. All they’ve released is this memo. In a prior conversation with the campaign on their polling, they’ve told me that they’re models factor in the “enthusiasm gap” and factor a much better GOP turnout than in 2008 and 2006. But they argue their pollster uses more precise “microtargeting” their questioning in creating their likely model sample than the rougher, less precise methods used by public pollsters who are using auto-dailers and are rushing one poll after another in race after race. (You got to do more than ask how likely you plan to vote?) Some pollsters, like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen, can’t reach cell phone users. There’s a body of evidence that failure enough could turn those polls from 4-5 points up to literally tied.

    I don’t think any pollster has extreme confidence in their model being better. (U.C., which conducted the Ohio Poll, has changed their mix twice over the last three polls, alone.) Especially this year. However, none of the public polling predicted a potential electorate like we’ve seen in the early vote. Given that gives Strickland a potential double digit-lead (but only with a group that is currently only 16% of the vote, it’s not unbelieveable to believe that a virtual tie on Election Day voting could be enough to give Strickland a four-to-five voting. I don’t know what they’re modeling factor in for the early vote, but I’ll say that the Strickland campaign has been genuinely pleased with it and said that it appears the OFA is hitting their ambituous targets mostly (Hamilton County is a disappointment, though)

    Quinnipiac, reportedly, is only giving the Democrats a two-point advantage, but everyone is under 40%. The other wild card factor is that precise few polls have actually included the four-party candidates.

    I’ll admit I have now had some misgivings about Strickland’s internals simply because no other public polling has had Kasich so low. But a four-to-five point lead is not hard to believe when you consider what we’ve seen in the early vote and almost all the polls showed Kasich with no cross-over vote appeal.

  • Pingback: Tweets that mention Strickland’s internal polling has him up by 4 -- Topsy.com()

  • Jrmiller6020

    Rest assured, I am NO “poser”. What I am is a registered DEM, retired OEA member and scared as hell of Kasich. He will dismantle public schools, divert money to his crony Charter school operators and attempt to weaken our Collective Bargaining rights won back in ’82…Jim

  • Jrmiller6020

    Thanks. Your conjecture is thought-out and expressed well. I will do what we all need to be doing now (help GOTV) and hope we can bring about a great DEM victory Tues…Jim

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