Today, the Ohio Poll came out with it’s second poll in a week, this time for the Ohio Newspaper Organization.
Yep, that’s 49% to 47%. A week ago, the Ohio Poll claimed it was a 51%-43% race.
If you’re wondering, yes, part of the reason for the change is that the Ohio Poll slightly altered its likely voter model since the last Ohio Poll. However, the change really wasn’t significant. According to the Columbus Dispatch:
“Today’s poll shows Republicans outnumbering Democrats by 5 percentage points, with independents making up only 9 percent of voters.”
The Ohio Poll last week had Republicans outnumbering Democrats by 7%. That’s only a 2% change. That’s not enough to attribute a six-point swing. Strickland has shown real improvement in the polls.
As for the Carpetblogger’s believe that the aggregate average of five points means that Kasich is ahead, well, at least one prominent Ohio Republican doesn’t buy it or the last Quinnipiac poll showing Kasich up ten points either. Again, from today’s Dispatch:
State Republican Chairman Kevin DeWine said even he didn’t believe Kasich had a 10-point advantage. “This election is truly a dead heat,” DeWine said.
Apparently like his counterpart, Chairman DeWine is an avid Plunderbund reader, too. Because a five-point lead is not a dead heat. Aggregate be damned.
(I’d note that that Ohio Poll shows only a six point lead with Independents, but it states that it sample too view to be an accurate representation.)
Like every close election, it’s all going to come down to turnout.
In Ohio, where the governor’s race is in doubt and Republicans are challenging some Democratic House members, party chairman Kevin DeWine recently wrote Steele that the $566,900 the RNC had transferred to date “simply pales in comparison” with 2004, 2006 and 2008.
DeWine begged Steele on Oct. 11 for the full amount of $1 million-plus and then another “emergency appeal” of a million on top of that. The RNC sent $284,400 to Ohio last week as part of a round of $2.8 million to states.
That money was to fund the Ohio Republican Party’s GOTV efforts, and even that would put it millions below what it had in the past two cycles. The Ohio Republican Party had more resources to turn out the vote for Ken Blackwell than they do John Kasich.
Think we can get our friends and neighbors to get out a vote to keep Ohio blue this November?