Nearly 25% of all registered voters in Cuyahoga County have already voted.  In 2006, only 20% of registered voters didMontgomery and Franklin County will like exceed their 2006 early voter turnout, too. [UPDATE: Montgomery County has exceeded its 2006 early voter turnout.]

In Cuyahoga County, 56% of the early vote turnout is registered Democrats.  23% of the early vote turnout is Republican.   Cuyahoga may comer to the rate of early vote/total vote it hit in 2008 than people believed at the beginning of the week.  Montgomery will has surpassed 2006 turnout.  Franklin County is just shy of hitting the 2006 early vote turnout.

But what does having three solidly Democratic counties having higher early voting turnout in 2006 really mean?  It means that Democrats have a nearly ten-point lead over the Republicans in early voting:

“Ballots have been requested by 839,390 Ohio voters thus far, with Democrats comprising about 40 percent to the GOP’s 30 percent, and the rest unaffiliated voters. The Democrats’ coordinated campaign director, Lauren Groh-Wargo, said the party’s months of organizing were beginning to pay off. ‘This is not accidental,’ she said. ‘We have made a concerted effort to target infrequent Democratic voters. We are expanding the electorate in this midterm election, and Republicans are not.’” [Politico, 10/22/10]

Today, Chuck Todd called the Ohio Democratic Party is perhaps the “best State Party in the Country” and said “reports of Strickland’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.”

As we mentioned before, one national election analysis is amazed what he’s seeing for Democrats in Ohio this year:

“‘I’m just blown away by these numbers, given everything we’ve been told about the enthusiasm gap,’ George Mason University political science Professor Michael McDonald said in an interview with ABC News. McDonald, an expert in voting statistics and trends, said he’s also seen some positive signs for Democrats in certain Ohio counties. ‘I don’t know what the heck to make out of what we’re seeing out of Iowa and Ohio,’ he said. ‘I feel like I’m in 2008, it’s like déjà vu all over again.’” [ABC News, 10/15/10]

The national political media is amazed at what they’re seeing for Democrats in Ohio:

“But not all states are seeing a big surge of Republican voters. In Ohio, Democrats have requested and returned absentee ballots at a higher rate than have Republicans, and more Democrats have voted early in person. According to the state Democratic Party’s totals, five times more infrequent-voting Democrats have turned out than Republicans, an indication that the party’s turnout efforts are working.” [Hotline, 10/21/10]

So, of course, the Cincinnati Enquirer reports:

Ohio Dems struggle to repeat ’08 ground game

First, anyone who expects any party to repeat the same turnout in a midterm that they did in a Presidential is just high?  And did the Enquirer cite any actual early voting data for its analysis?  Nope, not the actual early vote totals, but a Pew Poll that’s not even a poll of Ohioans . . . but national voters overall.

There’s a word for political media in Ohio.  And that word is pathetic.

 
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  • Jrmiller6020

    I agree these figures look good for Ted but I have 1 concern…How do we know all these early voting Dems are voting for the Dem statewide ticket considering the the current scandal in the county gov’t up there?…Jim, Columbus

  • Anonymous

    We don’t. But I don’t think we’ve seen any evidence that Democratic voters in Cuyahoga County necessarily relate the county scandal up the ticket. It normally doesn’t flow up.

  • Jrmiller6020

    Another question…What trends can be seen with the early vote in Franklin and Hamilton Counties? I know FC is Kasich’s home so I assume Ted’s vote will be much less then in 2006. Any insight on this?…Jim, Columbus

  • Anonymous

    Democrats have a slight edge in Franklin County which is much less than we’ve seen in the past two cycles.

    Hamilton County has a slightly red tint in the early vote. It’s the most underperforming county we need to do well. However, that gap has been narrowing.

    One thing that I should mention. Our early vote population has tended to be more Democratic than the general election population as a whole during the last two cycles. But I don’t have the actual hard data to tell you what a difference was between the early vote and the “election day” vote. Nonetheless, we’re showing a much better Democratic turnout than most of the polls have presumed would be the case.

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