As of the 15th of October, the Hamilton County breakdown for early vote requests (according to the Hamilton County Board of Elections) is as follows:

Dem-20,137
Rep-22,831
Non-19,382

Others-210

So while it appears that the Democrats are leading in the early vote overall based largely on leads in Franklin, Summit, and Cuyahoga counties, Hamilton County—which is now largely considered a blue(ish) county is underperforming. 

The biggest reason for the lead in Hamilton County early vote, in my opinion, is probably this is Rob Portman’s geographical base.  With the absence of a competitive Senate campaign in the region, Portman’s running up the score there.  Fisher stopped airing his sole ad since Labor Day in Cincinnati long before it stopped airing altogether.  After a major rally in Cincinnati with President Bill Clinton, Fisher has all be ceded the region to Portman.

This, more so than any polling, might explain why the DCCC cut its ad buys in the First Congressional District rematch between Congressman Steve Driehaus and former Congressman Steve Chabot.  It’s hard to imagine a path to victory for Driehaus without a Democratic lead in the early vote.   However, the GOP’s advantage is only by less than 3,000 votes.  So if you live in the Hamilton County area, you need to volunteer with Organizing for America and the Hamilton County Democratic Party to turn Hamilton County blue!  There’s still time to do this.

This might also explain why the Ohio Poll, done by the University of Cincinnati tweaked their model to a more favorable GOP turnout.  Although it has a statewide perspective in its polling, it’s hard to imagine that the pollster are not influenced by what they see locally and that could impact their perspective on the race.

Meanwhile, Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Montgomery counties all appear to be on track to have just as much early voting as we saw in 2006.  Registered Democratic voters are outnumbering registered Republican voters in all of those counties.  Although Summit County does not appear to be on pace to have the same percentage of early vote as it did in 2006, the latest figures show registered Democratic voters outpacing registered Republican voters by nearly 2:1 (as in today)!

In order to get the result on election night similar to what Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll is predicting, registered Republicans have to exceed registered Democrats by making up 7% more of the total general election vote than Democrats.  So far, Republicans statewide are behind the Democrats. Could the Ohio Poll and Quinnipiac still turn out right?  Perhaps, but it requires a much different partisan makeup of the general election voting on election day than had voting early.  And that 7% figure now approached 10% on election day due to the Democrats early vote advantage.

I don’t think either is going to occur.  Democratic voters have woken up and realized what we as a nation and a State could lose if we allow the same architects of this economic collapse back in charge again with no recognition that their failed ideology is to blame.

We can win.

 

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