Here’s what CNN’s exit polling in 2008 in Ohio showed:
And here’s what CNN’s exit polling showed in Ohio in 2006:
And here’s the CNN exit polling in Ohio in 2004:
Now, given that there are nearly one million less registered Republicans than Democrats in Ohio and our best cycles ever never had us breaking past 40% total turnout even when that advantage was 2 million, do you now understand why Tim and I keep saying the likely turnout models in the Ohio Poll showing the general electorate being 49% self-identified Republicans is pretty much an impossible model?
Even in 2004, when Bush carried Ohio with the GOP’s much vaunted “Voter Vault” GOTV microtargeting system and “teh gays” marryin’ amendment, no Party has been more than 40% of the electorate.
And yet, the Ohio Poll (and others) are doing statistically weighing that predicts an electorate that is ten points higher any prevailing party has even shown in Ohio?!? And its the one with 1 million less registered voters and is behind in early voting statewide?
Until someone (media, Keeling, Nate Silver, anyone) can credibly address how that’s possible, I will continue to ignore the Ohio Poll and Quinnipiac Polls as junk. Any “aggregate” based on such junk, is also junk.
This race is within the margins. That’s what both campaigns’ internals show, CNN/Time, Suffolk, and even Rasmussen shows.
Anyone who tells you anything other than that is lying to you (and to themselves.)