48-47.  I’m not the polling blogger here at PB, but I have been noticing something very weird about this cycle’s measurement of the so-called “enthusiasm gap”.

As Modern has pointed out, many of the polls showing Kasich ahead by a wide margin sample Republican voters at nearly a majority of the entire electorate.

There is no evidence, none, that the smallest population of the registered voter population in Ohio (registered Republicans) will be the biggest population of the general election population in November to such an extent that they will be a majority of the general election vote (which is the only way a poll like Quinnipiac can show a lead greater than the Ohio Poll, which requires an unprecedented 49% GOP electorate.)

That is fantasy.  I don’t care how enthusiastic one party or another might be over their competition, under no circumstance will the actual turnout yield an electorate that is 49% for ANY party, let alone the Ohio GOP, which has a substantial registration deficit statewide.

I can understand polling firms trying to measure this “enthusiasm gap”, but to do so this clumsily yields some pretty clumsy polling.  Putting the GOP turnout at 49% of all turnout, based merely on some vague “enthusiasm” model, strikes me as watching way too much Fox News.  And given that early vote numbers are not that different from historical performance, this 49% measure of the electorate in favor of Republicans is pretty damn idiotic.

So I think this poll accurately reflects where this race sits.  Tied.

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