The Washington Post’s Chris Cilliza’s latest “The Fix” story continues to obsess over where the DCCC has pulled out of (with no mention of the NRCC’s movement). It mentions the “pull out” of the DCCC in the Driehaus/Chabot rematch (even though it’s only in paid advertising. The DCCC is still funding the ground game there, and it only is pulling out after this week because the NRCC already has.)
But it also mentioned this on the Ganley race:
Cleveland – There are slight cuts for both Reps. John Boccieri (D-Ohio) and Zack Space (D-Ohio), but the big cuts come for Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Ohio), who the committee is now confident will win thanks to GOP nominee Tom Ganley‘s sexual harassment scandal.
This comes out on the same day that Ganley cancelled his ad buys to move to cheaper cable and radio ads.
I’m still not seeing a congressional map in Ohio that is differently from what I, and just about everyone else in the political world, saw immediately after the 2008 elections. Driehaus and Kilroy are the most vulnerable. Boccieri a distant third.
In fact the failure of the NRCC to yet again recruit a better candidate in the 18th Congressional District in Zach Space creates a map more favorable to the Democrats than I figured we’d see.
Iott and Ganley have imploded. The modest buys by the NRCC are not enough to give the GOP a chance in the 18th and 6th. The Democratic incumbents have too much of a financial edge.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the NRCC has spent less than $100,000 in its ad buy in the Sixth Congressional District. That’s not enough to make a difference, especially given Wilson’s ridiculous 6:1 fundraising advantage to his opponent.
The NRCC is playing in different districts hoping that they might pick off a few seats on the cheap on election night. But even in the GOP national tide election in 2008 for the Democrats, we only picked up Driehaus and Kilroy—two seats who were perennial targets in prior elections even in non-wave elections. As we are weeks from the election now, I’m unconvinced that the map in Ohio is any different as to the low number of races in play.
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