From the daily archives: Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Pollster.com’s graphs can be misleading.  See, when you use the default setting, it doesn’t show changes in the race because it plots an average point over the entire race.  However, polling picks up as an election approaches and, not surprising, early polling data is pretty darn useless at that point.

Here’s what Pollster.com’s default chart shows in the Governor’s race:

Wow, it looks like Kasich continues to build on his lead and Strickand’s support is flat?   The Carpetblogger likes to use this graph all the time lately.  However, even he has admitted that the race has tightened.  So […]

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I’ll give Matt Naugle credit.  He’s totally calling out Kasich on this one.

Turns out that Naugle’s done a little bit more research on Kasich’s paid actor.

He found this on the guy’s MySpace page:

Then, and perhaps more troubling, is the guy’s criminal record for battery, theft, and forgery.

John Kasich just used a convicted felon to attack Ted Strickland.

Um, wow.

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In the past month, Strickland’s internal polling has tracked most of public opinion polls.  Also, note that this is the only poll we’ve seen that actually included all four candidates in the race.  (Mr. Spisak, they show you polling better than the Green Party candidate got in 2006.  You might break 2%, an all-time best for a statewide Green Party candidate.  No snark intended, seriously.)

Our Week 4 tracking poll, conducted October 3-5, 2010, shows Governor Ted Strickland at 46 percent and Republican John Kasich at 42 percent, a 4-point lead for Strickland.  The Strickland lead expands in the four-way […]

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Remember how every time Ted Strickland used footage of the former Dayton factory worker who lost her job to free trade deals Strickland opposed in Congress, but Kasich support, the Carpetblogger (R-VA) got the vapors and suggested she should have a SAG card?

Well, she’s not a professional actor, she’s a real live Ohioans who has been directly and adversely affected by the policies John Kasich supported in Congress.

Now, John Kasich has his own “Johnny Lunchpail” hard hat wearing guy claiming he’s out of work because of Ted Strickland.

Here’s a hint, if a person appears in a political […]

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Not sure if this ad is actually on the air yet or where, though.  I’m waiting to get word from the campaign.

[UPDATE:]  Boyce’s campaign confirmed the ad went up yesterday in a statewide buy that matches Mandel’s.  Thanks for the comments, Plunderbund Ad Watchers!

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I wish Nate Silver would do seminars teaching journalists how to report polls beyond just cutting and pasting the results.

Today, the Columbus Dispatch reported on a poll reported in the D.C. political paper, The Hill, which reportedly shows bank lobbyist Steve Stivers sitting on a nine-point lead over freshman Democratic Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy.  Incidentially, the poll was funded by the American Natural Gas Alliance.  No, I don’t what to make of that, either.

But I know that the poll has a fundamental flaw.  Like most of the polling we’ve seen in Ohio this year, […]

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