Even it shows that the Governor’s race is substantially tightening in a matter of a few weeks.  Back in mid-September, Quinnipiac showed a jaw-dropping seventeen-point lead for John Kasich which was five-points greater than any other poll has shown in the race period.  Since then, we’ve seen a number of polls come out that showed the race is in a statistical dead heat.

Today, Quinnipiac released a new poll that still shows the biggest lead than any other poll… but now it’s only a nine-point lead (one point higher than the most recent Rasmussen poll.)

  • Kasich: 50%
  • Strickland: 41%

Although it is late to the party, Quinnipiac has shown what Rasmussen showed last month.  Once Strickland began airing ads, particularly positive ones, Kasich has seen his lead essentially evaporate in half in a matter of two weeks.  We’ve seen an 8-point swing in the race, according to Quinnipiac in two weeks.  That’s a huge amount of movement.  And most encouraging to the Strickland campaign, look where that movement is coming from:

image John Kasich is bleeding support to Ted Strickland.  And it’s all as people’s attitudes on Strickland improve while Kasich’s image worsens.

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John Kasich going entirely negative is going to drive up his own negatives and hurt his favorability.

Again, this poll shows the greatest lead of any poll for Kasich.  More so than Fox News and Rasmussen.  It shows Kasich doing better with Independents than just about every other recent poll out there.  It gives Kasich an unbelieveable nine-point advantage on which candidate more shares your values, something Strickland’s internals show him with a lead.

Yet despite all those advantages, Quinnipiac shows Kasich’s lead has been rapidly deteriorating while Strickland has been improving.  You don’t see an eight-point swing in poll after poll and assume that’s just a one time thing.  Kasich has gone nuclear with Strickland (and will likely do so during their last debate this week) to stop the bleeding because his internals (which have largely tracked Strickland’s) show the same thing except that the race is now in a statistical dead heat.

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  • Dave

    I like Quinny, but I never trusted the +17 in September, this seems more in line and confirms the Rasmussen print and the Ohio poll, which is definitely dated by now.

    Kasich’s favorability is +16 while Stricklands is -6. Ouch. Yeah it’s moving in the right direction, but not fast enough for Strickland. Not at this rate.

    For Kasich and these favorability ratings, going nuclear is just smart politics, as distasteful as it is. He’s benefitting by being “not Strickland”.

    Strickland needs to do something to define Kasich and move the focus off of him, but my impression is that he’s been trying to do that all along. This is not good news for him.

  • Anonymous

    Quinny nationally has been polling more pro-GOP in other states than even Rasmussen. After watching from 2006 until now, my opinion of Quinny is that it tends to overstate whatever the convention wisdom is that the political winds are blowing. For example, they’ve shown the best numbers for the GOP in the Florida and New York, much like SurveyUSA. The Ohio Poll showed a four-point lead. To equate it as in line with Rasmussen which show twice that lead is a bit of stretch to me.

    You should know that Strickland saw a +10 net change in his favorability rating from the prior poll just roughly two weeks ago. That’s a jaw dropping change in a little over three weeks. Kasich a -4. Keeping Kasich under 50 on favorability can be enough. Regardless the trend is good. I don’t think favorability is a particularly good indicator of an election–it’s just a significant factor.

    What these polls tell me is that despite our rapt attention to these races, voters really are just starting to pay attention to the election and weighing their options.

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