We’ve been given a copy of an e-mail from Ohio Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign Director Lauren Groh-Wargo on the status of the early vote in Ohio:
Three days into Early Vote, the Ohio Democratic Coordinated Campaign is encouraged by the numbers we see. According to our latest figures:
More Democrats than Republicans are requesting ballots.
- A tabulation of all 88 counties shows that nearly 20 percent more Democrats than Republicans have requested ballots.
- Democratic ballot requests outnumber Republican ballot requests statewide by margins in the tens of thousands.
Infrequent voting Democrats – whose turnout is key to our victory – are requesting ballots in higher numbers than infrequent voting Republicans.
Unaffiliated voters requesting ballots lean toward Democrats.
- Given what we know about the unaffiliated voters who have requested ballots, we are confident that they, too, lean toward Democrats.
And it’s not just Organizing for America suggesting positive numbers for Democratic turnout.
Here’s an interesting question in this week’s New York Times/CBS News poll in Ohio that nobody has noted:
Strickland’s campaign has a five-point lead among people who have been contacted by the campaign.
And as for that “enthusiasm gap?” Well, Reuters’ showed what other polls are showing nationally—it closing quickly. In fact, Reuters shows it closing quicker in Ohio than other polls show nationally:
The poll offered some good news for Democrats, who showed signs of gaining ground on Republicans in their enthusiasm for voting. This month, 79 percent of Democrats said they were certain to vote compared to 67 percent in August.
Republican enthusiasm remained largely unchanged, with 91 percent saying they are certain to vote.
Not only did we see a 12-point jump in Democratic enthusiasm in a month, but we saw the gap reduced by HALF as well.
You may have seen yesterday’s Cleveland Plain Dealer story that suggested that Republicans were winning the early vote. First, the data is already outdated. It cited Franklin County has having more GOP absentee requests than Democrats. By the end of the day, the Dispatch reported that gap had been erased, meaning the trend is that more and more Democratic requests are coming in now.
Second, it only looked at three counties that make up only 30% of the Statewide vote.
Third, as the chart shows, whatever the ratio of voters by parties who have voted early are, the Democratic registration advantage in those counties are such that the GOP must get a bigger share of the early vote to overcome the Democrats advantage on having a sheer number of total registered voters over the Republicans. That’s not happening.
Remember Tim taking the Carpetblogger for predicting that the indictment of DiMora meant we couldn’t turn out the Democratic vote in Cuyahoga County?
“It’s also why every 2 years, the DNC, ODP, and the various campaigns in Ohio build their own GOTV operation in Cuyahoga County from the ground up, completely separate of the county party. I did it myself in 3 consecutive cycles.”
Here’s the numbers from Cuyahoga County:
We’re turning out the vote in a midterm in Cuyahoga County just fine.
551 voters as of this morning have cast in-office votes in Hamilton County. Earlier this week, the Enquirer said that was running 3:1 in favor of Democrats.
And, again, an absentee ballot request is only meaningful if the voter then actually cast a ballot which happens less often than you realize.
All week, I’ve received updates from ODP and OFA. They’re telling me they’re happy with what they see and they’re hitting their targets. The overall State picture would seem to back them up on it.
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