As Tim would say “Former John Kasich staffer, Homeland Security consultant, and lifelong suckling of the government teat, Jon Keeling” today wrote a post titled “Silver still very confident in Kasich victory” And although the Carpetblogger’s post does link to a blog post on FiveThirtyEight.com written by Nate Silver, that post never mentioned John Kasich, Ted Strickland, or the Ohio gubernatorial election one time. Not once!
However, here’s what Mr. Silver had to say about the Ohio’s gubernatorial race in a post that same day:
- He called it the second fastest moving race to the Democrats favor.
- His forecast for the race tightened by more than two points in a week.
- He conceded that his model’s requirement to keep the Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls (which showed Kasich with a double-digit lead) forces it to give Kasich better odds than he probably has: “[T]he model is not in a rush to discard some slightly older polls, like those from SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, which had given Mr. Kasich a double-digit advantage; if these firms resurvey the race and find a different result, Mr. Strickland’s chances should improve in our model.”
- On Kasich’s campaign in particular, Silver noted:
“[S]trategists regard [Kasich] as having run a mediocre campaign . . .”
So, Ted Strickland is in the second quickest moving race in favor of the Democrats in the gubernatorial races, it’s improving so quickly that Silver admits his model requires him to include two outlier polls that results in overstating Kasich’s odds on winning, and Kasich is running a campaign national strategies believe to be mediocre.
Yep, that Nate Silver sure does sound confident in Kasich’s victory all right.