The same polling company that does Fox News’ polling in Ohio also does polling for Rasmussen, Pulse Opinion Research, LLC, which is also owned and operated by Scott Rasmussen.
Yesterday, Pulse Opinion Research, LLC’s poll for Fox News showed the race as a two-point tossup, after been an eight point race the week before.
Today, Pulse Opinion Research, LLC’s poll for Rasmussen claims that the race is essentially unchanged from two weeks ago when it also said it was seven-point race.
Both polls asked the questions using the same methodology. Both were done by the same pollster, presumably, using the same likely voter model. And yet we have two polls from essentially the same outfit which shows a six point difference on the same race. How’s that possible?
I don’t know. But I know which one the Kasich campaign believes is accurate, and it ain’t today’s Rasmussen poll. Kasich already has scheduled an increasingly negative ad campaign. That’s not something you do a little over a month before the election if you think you’re sitting on nearly a double-digit lead with no movement in the race. It’s what you do when the race is getting as tight as a drum.
Fox News, Reuters, NY Times/CBS News, and the Ohio Poll, say this is a 1-4 point race. Strickland’s internals (which this month have been proven to be very accurate) say its a two point race. I’ve been told, by multiple sources who asked to speak to me anonymously, that Mary Taylor and Franklin County GOP Chairman Doug Priesse have told people that Kasich’s internals show it in line with these polls and not today’s Rasmussen. But more important, the Kasich’s campaigns own actions demonstrate that even they don’t believe this race hasn’t suddenly gotten much tighter and that they’ve lost momentum to Strickland. Why does Rasmussen not show any movement today? I don’t know, and don’t care. Too much polling data is out there that just says Rasmussen is wrong and overstating support for Kasich.
Then there’s also this Tweet from our favorite Kasich campaign’s intern/astorturfer:
It wasn’t that long ago that this same kid was trying to rub in every poll out there. When a campaign that was once touting double-digits leads starts saying “forget what the polls say,” well, do I even need to finish that sentence?
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