(So, I had to take a break of the blog due to some personal issues with my family. Thanks, Tim for covering my usual beat.)
I told you that the Quinnipiac Poll was not to be believed when the MSM couldn’t STOP talking about it.
At the end of August, I wrote:
Ted can win with an ad that acknowledges the problems we’re all facing in this economy and talk about what he’s been doing about it.
There’s time to win this thing, but we have to cover both sides of the equation. We’ve got Kasich against the rope… now hit him with your record, Ted.
I had nothing to do with the campaign’s decision to go positive. But I was right about what a significant impact it would have (and those ads just starting airing less than two weeks ago!) Invacare would redefine Kasich and would draw blood. Strickland achieved more in the debates than Kasich did.
Despite saying this, the media and the Carpetblogger argued the opposite on each one of these things. Don’t forget that. They ignored, entirely, Rasmussen showing Kasich’s lead being cut in half two weeks ago as a canary in the coal mine that must have just died from old age. Instead, they paid more attention to a historically flawed Dispatch mail-in poll and an obviously flawed Quinny poll instead. They said the Invacare ad backfired. They claimed that Kasich won the first debate. The Chamber endorsement of Kasich was a game changer.
They were flat out wrong.
Keeling loves to talk about the aggregate of the polling data as a true sign of the state of the race. No matter how much that aggregate may contain junk data like Quinnipiac, Keeling argued, it still was more important than focusing on CNN/Time, Rasmussen, and Fox News polls showing a much tighter race, Keeling said.
Well, in one day, Keeling saw his aggregate get HALVED… in a day.
Did Kasich win the debate? Was the Chamber of Commerce a “game changer” like the media and Keeling portray it? No because there is no polling data to support such claims by Keeling or the media.
Now, Modern how can you say that today’s polls had anything to do with the debate? The debate got the best rating of any gubernatorial debate in Ohio. it was watched largely in central Ohio. What has the Ohio Poll showed has occurred in central Ohio?
|Pre-Debate (May)||Post-Debate (Sept.)|
There’s not one single poll that suggest Kasich got a bounce from the debate. Central Ohio is the only region the Ohio Poll shows a remarkable change in Strickland’s favor since May. Given that is where most people saw the debate, you must assume that the debate was a likely factor for that bounce. If not the debate, I’d welcome any alternative theory to explain why the Ohio Poll showed, specifically and exclusively, Strickland significantly improving his standing in Central Ohio.
Remember in 2008, the media immediately after the Presidential debates called them a draw, some even thought McCain got the edge… until the snap polling showed that viewers had the opposite reaction. Same thing happened here. Again, I’d welcome anyone who still believes Kasich “won” the debates to explain today’s poll numbers.
Today’s three polls uniform in their consistency almost as much as their refusal to bend to his narrative left Jon Keeling and other Kasich supporters reduced to:
Keeling even had to try to spin how Kasich going negative (something that Kasich himself claimed he’d never do because, in his words, he “isn’t running against Strickland) was actually a good thing. He then spent the rest of the day desperately trying to change the subject while watching the aggregate lead he bragged about a week ago evaporate like the value of Lehman Brothers stock two years ago.
Just how bad did it get? Even the media tried to engage in instant revisionist history. A few weeks ago, the Columbus Dispatch cited the Quinnipiac poll as confirmation of their mail in response poll. What did they write in response to today’s Fox News’ poll?
“The new measures come on the heels of a Columbus Dispatch/Ohio Newspaper Organization survey published Sunday that showed Kasich up by 4 points. Earlier polls showed Kasich with a double-digit lead.”
Notice how it’s now the Dispatch/Ohio Newspaper poll and they can’t even mention their own poll? It’s shameless.
Maybe “nobody reads blogs,” but maybe they should.
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