What do you do if you’ve spent weeks crowing about polls showing double-digit leads nobody else believes are accurate, the Ohio Poll shows the race practically tied? Well, if you’re the Carpetblogger, you imply that the Ohio Poll has been biased in Strickland’s favor the whole time:
During that time, The Ohio Poll also joined Quinnipiac as the only poll to show Ted Strickland leading the race. The difference? Quinnipiac never had support for Strickland above 44%.
Get that? Pay no attention to the Ohio Poll, Keeling says, because it and Quinnipiac were the only polls at times when the Ohio Poll came out to show Strickland was ahead, and not even Quinnipiac has shown Strickland above 44%? It’s an outlier… That’s Keeling’s word to describe yesterday’s Ohio Poll
Of course, before yesterday, there have been only two other Ohio Poll’s this year. And the first one in January showed Kasich ahead by six points. Which, according to Pollster, is what Rasmussen showed at the time. So already, the Ohio Poll’s track record this year does not demonstrate a pro-Strickland bias.
Now there was another poll in May, and Keeling is correct that—at that time—only the Ohio Poll and Quinnipiac showed Strickland ahead. Except the presentation of those polls as “outliers” as Keeling tries to portray them doesn’t match the actual facts. You see, Keeling somehow neglected to mention that there was only one other publicly released poll in May—Rasmussen’s. So if anyone was the outlier, it would have been it. Regardless, even Rasmussen’s May results don’t suggest the Ohio Poll was an outlier as it had a statistically insignificant lead for Kasich at the time—well within the margins to get the same results as Quinnipiac or the Ohio Poll:
Keeling’s correct that Quinnipiac has never had Strickland’s support over 44%, but again, that’s misleading. As the above chart from Pollster.com shows, while that’s true about Quinny, it’s not true about Rasmussen. In fact, the Ohio Poll’s results for Strickland’s support is within the margins of other polling made public at the time. Therefore, it’s not statistically accurate to say that the Ohio Poll has been an outlier in stating Strickland’s support, either. Anyone honestly think that Rasmussen has a pro-Strickland bias?
Of course, Keeling missing the most glaring error in his attempt to portray the Ohio Poll as an outlier overstating Strickland’s support. And that’s the meaning of the word “outlier.” If yesterday’s Ohio Poll is an “outlier” that overstates Strickland’s support and the margin of the race, then so are:
- The last two polls for Fox News (Kasich’s former employer);
- The most recent Rasmussen poll (released two weeks ago);
- The CNN/TIME poll; and
- Both campaigns’ internal tracking polls.
In other words, the majority of the polling in the race. That would seem to stretch the definition of “outlier” beyond all cognitive recognition of the term.
Jon Keeling has ZERO credibility. Anyone who would write such a demonstratively false and misleading post is nothing more than a spinning hack who’s parroting talking points fed to him by a campaign who doesn’t want their supporters (and opponent’s supporters) to realize just how tight this race is getting.
Kasich didn’t have a good week last week. His education ad gave Strickland the opportunity to highlight his own record on the issue and that Kasich’s plan will result in big cuts in education and higher property taxes. He got the Chamber endorsement, but its affect was instantly muted by the high-profile and very public and noisy resignation by Ohio’s largest utility company, AEP.
And after a week of every statewide newspaper carrying headlines about Kasich bringing in higher property taxes, every Sunday newspaper the weekend before early voting said the race was tightening and it was anyone’s ball game. The campaign’s hope to use an obviously flawed Quinny poll to dampen Democratic turnout has failed.
Again, Jon Keeling can continue to scream about how John Kasich is still sitting on a ten-point aggregate lead all he wants, but everything he and the campaign is doing demonstrates that they know this race has tightened and might just slip away from them. That’s why the Kasich campaign has gone increasingly negative as the Strickland campaign has gone positive and Keeling has pushed such easily refutable and laughable spin on the Ohio Poll. They’re starting to panic.