March-September 2010 Trend: Vote Preferences in 2010 Congressional Elections, Based on Registered Voters

Remember how three weeks ago Gallup showed the GOP up at a historical ten-point lead in the generic Congressional ballot?  Remember all the conservatives and the media touting it as our party’s obituary.

Well, today, Gallup showed us at a statistically insignificant—but political significant—one-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot.

And as Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo (TPM) notes, it’s not just Gallup showing a Democratic resurgence.  Four other polls in the last week have shown a Democratic lead on the generic Congressional ballot.

It’s showing both a Democratic uptick and a Republican downtick.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has found that there’s a massive disconnect between actual congressional race polls and the generic ballot leading him to conclude that the generic congressional ballot may be understating the likely Democratic performance come November.

This may be in part to the fact that while voters aren’t crazy about either party, they really, really hate the GOP at levels never seen before in public polling.  Worse than post-Watergate.  It’s post-Waterboarding.

We…. are….. screwed!

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  • redhorse

    Gallup is using an RV model? Call when the idiots use an LV model.

  • Anastasjoy

    This is why poll obsession is useless. Just keep working.

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