Just like every other week, today we got the latest poll from Rasmussen which essentially confirms what the latest Fox News poll said: this is a 5-7 point race, not a race where Kasich has a double-digit lead like the bipartisanly mocked Dispatch poll has claimed.

Two weeks ago, just as Strickland was beginning to go back on the air after giving the airwaves exclusively to Kasich and the RGA for six straight weeks of constant ads, Rasmussen showed Kasich with a 52% to 40% lead when leaners were included.  A twelve-point lead.

Little over one week after this ad started to run:

And Kasich’s lead in Rasmussen’s polling has been cut nearly in half.

I don’t pay to subscribe to Rasmussen, so I don’t get to see the cross tabs.  But Rasmussen gives enough detail to allow you to deduce where the movement has been.  In the head-to-head, Kasich lost two points while Strickland gained three.  Who moved?

Well, we know it wasn’t Democrats or Republicans.  The support each candidate gets within their party barely moved.

88% of Republican likely voters are behind Kasich; two weeks ago that was 86%.  Strickland went from having 75% to 77% of the likely Democratic vote.  In other words, no statistically significant movement among the bases.

But note the language change in Rasmussen’s releases about independent voters.

Two weeks ago, Rasmussen said:

Kasich leads by a greater than two-to-one margin among voters in Ohio not affiliated with either major political party.

That means that Kasich was getting over 2/3rds of the Independent voters (over 66%).  And over thirty-point advantage (according to Rasmussen.)

Today?

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the GOP candidate leads by more than 20 points.

Strickland’s Invacare ad cut Kasich’s lead in half because it turned off Independents to Kasich.  Strickland also saw a small bump in his approval rating and a small dip in his disapproval rating.

This poll shows that there is real movement in favor of Strickland since they went back on the air.

The Jon Keelings of the world can scream about how ineffective Strickland’s Invacare ad backfired, etc., but the polling trends do not lie.  Since Strickland has gone back on the air, the race has substantially tightened and Kasich’s edge with Independents is starting to slip away.

I think people like me can put away the paper sack we were breathing into two weeks ago.  The good news is that I can sell to the Kasich folks who have to wonder if the ad about Kasich’s personal involvement in killing Ohio jobs and sending them to China and Mexico has done all the damage it’s going to do or not.

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  • Qetzlcoatl

    Uh, you forgot to mention:

    that SUSA also published a poll today showing Kasich 12 points in the lead.

    that Strickland’s disapproval rating INCREASED in this poll compared to the Ras poll of 2 weeks ago, from 56% to 57%. Incumbents with 57% disapproval don’t get reelected.

    that the margin in this poll if leaners are not included is actually 8%.

    that the last PPP poll has the margin at 10%.

    that you said in July that a Ras poll with a 3% margin showed the race was “even’ at that point — so in other words, Strickland’s position has deteriorated since July.

    that the principal movement in all the polls over the past 6 months is voters going back and forth between Kasich and “another candidate” with almost no change in Strickland’s low numbers.

    that Strickland is polling WORSE than almost any statewide Democratic candidate including Lee Fisher, against much weaker opposition.

    I’m sure these were all just careless oversights on your part.

  • Modern Esquire

    Or because you can’t read.

    I didn’t write about SurveyUSA because it’s been notoriously inaccurate this cycle. Just like I didn’t write about the Dispatch poll except to point out their seven-point undersampling of Obama and Strickand voters. Stu Rothenberg just wrote this week about both being completely useless.

    Second, you can’t compare results from one poll to another and call them trends.

    Strickland’s approval rating in today’s Rasmussen poll showed a minor bump up in his approval and drop in disapproval.

    Yes, Strickland’s position deteroriated in July. Since then Kasich and the RGA went roughly a month and half hitting the airwaves with nothing in response from Strickland or the DGA.

    Less the two weeks after Strickland starting running ads again, Rasmussen shows that the lead they had for Kasich is roughly half what it used to be.

    CNN/Time magazine has released a poll today showing the same seven point race as Rasmussen and Fox News. Strickland performs better than Fisher.

    In fact, in most of the polling over the race, Strickland has actually been polling MORE competitively than against Portman.

    Thanks for your spin. Unfortunately, you’re factually incorrect.

  • Dennis Spisak

    Modern Esquire discounts EVERY POLL that shows his former boss, Ted Strickland behind by 10 or more points.

    Modern Esquire is the biggest cheerleader for Ted…considering Ted paid Modern $60,000 as a staff flunkie years ago….

    Modern is nothing but a true blue Ted-Head…..

    His blogging will always be bias.

  • Though you probably think you’ve scored a zinger here Dennis, there is nothing here that is not already known. It’s no secret that Modern was a staffer for Strickland. I’d venture to guess that you may have even first learned that from HIM.

    There’s also nothing new about what you offered the electorate of Ohio either, which is why you can’t raise money and stand less than zero chance of winning any election. You’re a greenie with a chip on his shoulder. Not sure why. Maybe you didn’t get noticed in Democratic circles. Maybe mom didn’t pay enough attention to you as a child. I’ve no clue.

    What I do know is that your little charade is boring and tiring. It makes no sense for a third party candidate general lined up along leftist values to bash a Democratic Governor who has actually done more to advance environmental causes that are a core tenet of your party. If you discount immaturity there leaves no real explanation for it.

    Let me pre-empt your coming rant response by reminding you that this blog is not a free speech zone. It’s our house. Tread lightly and politely or your name recognition on this blog will mirror that with the Ohio electorate.

  • Blake

    When are people going to realize that the polls do not matter because they do not sample the entire population? They are only an attempt to sell the “I’m voting for the winner” crowd on a particular candidate.

    Although I would prefer if Strickland wins (and still believe he can), vote with your conscience, not for whoever the polls are telling you is “winning”…If your conscience tells you to vote for Kasich, vote for him. If it tells you to vote for Strickland, vote for him.

    Polls mean nothing until election day.

  • Dennis Spisak

    Eric, I’ll be civil…

    Question, will Modern poo-poo today’s Q poll that shows Strickland down 17 points??? More flawed polling?

  • I’ll take this one. Any poll showing any candidate down 17 points is flawed, yes. My best guess is that this race is in the 6-8 point range. Not good news to be sure, but also not insurmountable – especially given the distance that’s been made up since Ohio voters have found more out about Kasich’s real record.

    Everyone has bias and agenda. It’s political blogging after all. I don’t expect you to say anything good about Strickland nor very much bad about Kasich. Is what it is.

  • Anonymous

    Actually, yes, Dennis, I would call any poll that predicts a more-Republican electorate in Ohio than what Rasmussen and Fox News’s pollster predict to be flawed. Especially since we already have hard data showing that NOT to be the case.

    Nice to see the Green Party admit what it is: a cheerleader to help elect Republicans.

  • Dennis Spisak

    Brian:
    I am not a cheerleader for Kasich…and neither is the Ohio Green Party.
    I just enjoy the way you brush off any poll that shows Strickland losing…
    All your hard data also got Jennifer Brunner the nod, correct?

    I enjoy watching you spin numbers and then write your blogs…. It would have been fun to see you write a blog while on the Titantic….

    “We’re not sinking…..we’re turning the boat into a submarine….”

  • Anonymous

    Dennis, you ARE a cheerleader for Kasich. You’ve been rooting for him to beat Ted all year because you can’t. You’ve never written a post attacking Kasich’s policies, his tax repeals, his privitization plans, nothing. It’s been nothing but Ted bashing all year. Hell, you literally parrot, I mean actually parrot, Kasich’s talking points in your posts!

    Second, the Brunner example you cite proves what a complete idiot you are. What did I say about Brunner? I said a Quinnipiac poll right before the primary showing Fisher with a twenty point lead was flawed and inaccurate.

    And I was proven right. Quinnipiac overstated Fisher’s lead by double digits. In fact, Fisher’s lead was HALF of what Quinnipiac predicted. In other words, the actual election results confirmed my analysis to the t. I never said I thought Brunner was actually ahead. I said she still had a much more viable chance than the polling showed.

    Yet your fat head can’t understand why I defend Strickland’s chances when more polling shows him with only a five to seven point deficit, and yet you continue to write that you have a chance despite all polling showing you with a FIFTY point deficit.

    Because you’ve never been involved in a professional political campaign, like I have been, you’ve never dealt with polls or learned how the media poorly interprets and reports them. Your campaign can’t even buy a pole tent, let alone conduct a public opinion poll.

    I think Ted Strickland is down 5-7 points and there are polls that suggest I’m right. I have pointed out factual reasons why the polls that suggest a bigger margin should not be trusted. But by bringing up Brunner, you actually ADDED to the body of my evidence.

    But you haven’t a response to that, because you have none. Take your cheap potshots, Dennis. It’s all that tissue between your ears can do. Meanwhile Ted Strickland is running a campaign to continue Ohio’s progress in building a green energy economy while you’re making snarky comments to his former district staffer instead of campaigning.

    But thanks for letting me review my history of being spot on in my prior poll analysis.

  • In case you haven’t noticed Dennis I’m going to tell you: You picked the ABSOLUTE worst day to fuck with Modern. I mean without a doubt the worst possible day. I’d walk away.

  • Anonymous

    No, go easy on him, Eric. He comes here to engage me because I’m the only one that actually bothers to read his tripe and will engage him. He’s such an attention whore that he’d rather engage me and be taken down than to accept being ignored because nobody gives a rat’s ass what Dennis Spisak has to say.

    I mean–come on, Dennis–why would you CONSTANTLY post the same post on FOUR DIFFERENT blogs if it weren’t for the fact that you can’t get anyone to read them on ANY OF THEM.

    Dennis is the epitome of what’s wrong with the progressive movement right now. They whine and moan about how those evil backstabbing Democrats haven’t made this a green energy utopia with universal health care, but then when you ask them what they’ve done they mention only the whining and bitching.

    After SIX months of asking Spisak what has he done for green energy and the environment in HIS elected position, do you know what he told me? Do you? He said he started the district’s RECYLCING PROGRAM. Something my school district had in the 1980s!

    Then when I asked him why his school district DIDN’T EVEN APPLY for State grants that Strickand created to bring renewal green energy technology to schools to help them save money on energy costs, do you know what his response was? HE BLAMED STRICKLAND. That’s the Dennis Spisak record on green energy and environmental issues. Failed leadership and typical political blame game finger pointing. I bet his yard signs aren’t even printed on recycled materials!

    When the Cincinnati Enquirer did a profile on all the candidates for governor, you know what the headline was for Spisak? Him complaining about how nobody paid him any attention! Given the microphone, Spisak whines what took them so long.

    Four years ago, the Greens ran as an Independent a true progressive with a documented history of fighting for clean and fair elections. He ran an ernstwhile campaign against the odds. He was a good and decent candidate. Spisak is a big fat joke with nothing more than his loud boorish mouth. He might single-handedly set back the third-party movement in Ohio just after finally winning easier ballot access.

    If it weren’t for Google he wouldn’t even be able to find anything to say. Just about every thing he writes is a cut and paste job from a news story or a public interest group that he passes off as his own in his “Blame the Democratic” template of hate and envy.

    No matter what happens this Novemeber, I can’t wait for it to get there so I don’t have to hear from this idiot any longer and the sanctimous defenders of him who… surprise, aren’t doing a goddamn thing for him either but whining and bitching.

    Meanwhile the very architects of this economic disaster, bankrupting tax cuts for the rich, and two wars we aren’t winning, are laughing their asses at us. They can’t believe how fucking stupid we are talking about sitting out this election as they dance their way right back into power to continue their extremist corporate agenda.

    If you don’t think things aren’t going to be any different if John Boehner is Speaker, Portman is in the Senate, and John Kasich is in the Governor’s Mansion, then you need to find the nearest brick you can find and keep smashing it as hard as you can into your head until you wake up and see the reality. And then, for good measure, give it another good whack to make sure it can’t get back in there.

  • Dennis Spisak

    Modern:

    Spot on? Keep rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic…..

  • Dennis Spisak

    Modern:

    Chill Dude…..:)

  • Joe

    I support Kasich for the following reasons: He doesn’t believe that a 39mph “high speed” passenger train from Cincinnati to Cleveland is a good idea. He believes that when risk and reward are properly balanced by a free market, that individuals will step up and start or invest in a business. He knows that higher taxes increase risk and decrease reward, which reduces business investment. He knows that lower taxes lower risk and increase reward, which increases business investment.

  • Anonymous

    The 3C rail plan would create tens of thousands of jobs. It would stimulate the economy in our urban centers. Provide a major upgrade of our freight rail system, and would put us on the path to develop high speed in the future (no area has EVER gone from no passenger rail to high speed bullet trains.)

    Under Ted Strickland, taxes are 17% lower than when he took office. John Kasich cannot even promise to do better than that. His “tax plans” are so vague he hasn’t even specifically guaranteed that he would cut taxes AT ALL.

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