Yeah, I’m stunned, too.
Tom Blumer actual wrote these words and put them on the Internets about last week’s July jobs report:
And that number is … pretty darned good — so good that I wonder if the press is all of a sudden going to discover the virtues of looking at actual results instead of the ones that are seasoned: …
The +91K seen on the ground in July is 191,000 jobs better than the acceptability benchmark set before the report came out. That’s impressive. The Birth/Death model isn’t skewing things either. The GM factor I cited earlier can’t be more than a small part of the improvement. Never mind what the seasonally adjusted number is — If the not seasonally adjusted +91K holds in subsequent revisions, or even stays above zero, it will be the first legitimately strong monthly private sector performance since [Jun ‘07]. It will take a long, long time to gain back what was lost, but perhaps the worst of our long national nightmare is finally beginning to end.
Look, I’m not averse to being negative when it’s called for, but this isn’t one of those times. Looking back, the +91K actual private sector performance is the best for any July since 1999. One month doesn’t make or break the economy, but the Establishment Survey’s July news was very good, and got seasonalized away. (emphasis added.)
I gotta admit. I was a little stunned at how candid and stunned Blumer was. He said it: July report actually shows that we’re in a recovery. He got that once you factored out the census jobs the July report shows a strengthening, not weakening, labor market.
I gotta sit down.