If you go to Pollster.com to look at the U.S. Senate race in Ohio, you’ll notice that the last three polls in the race were all done by Rasmussen. Nobody else has polled the race (publicly) since PPP did in June.
Rasmussen, as Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has already noted this year, has had quite the pro-GOP “house” effect being an outlier in multiple races throughout the nation.
Rasmussen does it’s own “Balance of Power” rankings that it determines solely from its own polling.
What’s interesting about it is not where it shows the races are, but where the races are compared to where they used to be:
Delaware, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, and Washington, all according to Rasmussen Reports have broken the Democrats way as we enter the last 100 days of the election.
This is not the expected trends you’d see in races as an election nears during a “tide” election. Normally, this is when the races that had been considered “tossups” or “leaning” the anti-tide party’s way suddenly start breaking to the “tide” party.
Does this mean we won’t see losses in November? Of course not, we won races in 2006 and 2008 we only won because they were tide elections. However, the absence of a tide on our behalf is not evidence of the existence of a GOP tide.
You can talk about enthusiasm gaps all you want. But in the past month, Rasmussen concedes that five Senate races are breaking towards the Democrats.