March-July 2010 Trend: Candidate Preferences in 2010 Congressional Elections, Among Registered Voters

(HT: Dave Harding @ ProgressOhio)

Gallup’s latest generic congressional ballot was released this morning.  Just look at that graph.  Support for the Democratic candidate has never been higher, while support for the Republicans has not been lower since Gallup started tracking in March.

The reason?

[I]ndependents are primarily responsible for Democrats’ improved positioning. Thirty-nine percent of independents favor the Democratic candidate in their district, up from 34% — although slightly more, 43%, still favor the Republican.

According to a USA Today/Gallup poll in June, 55% of Americans were in favor of legislation expanding government regulation of financial institutions — including 72% of Democrats and 56% of independents. Only Republicans were generally opposed.

Republican efforts to filibuster Wall Street reform sent Independents back into the arms of Democratic congressional candidates.

Gallup notes that GOP enthusiasm for voting hasn’t been higher since after the passage of health care reform, but that doesn’t necessary translate into votes.  There’s no evidence that support for Democratic candidates with Democrats is any weaker than it is for Republicans with Republican voters.  All that enthusiasm is from Republicans starting to measure the drapes of the Speaker’s office after White House Press Secretary Gibbs acknowledged what any person in political world already realized—that it’s possible that the Republicans could win the House in the fall.

But the key measure is to continue to watch if the Independents continue to trends towards the Democratic party and away from the Republican Party’s obstructionism:

March-July 2010 Trend: Generic Congressional Ballot Preferences -- Among Registered Independents

Let’s hope it does.

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