While we all await with baited breath for Jon Keeling to get his talking points from the Kasich campaign, I wanted to point out that the only things that show any movement is decidedly against Kasich’s favor.

Nine points is significant movement in a little over a month.  And Kasich’s unfavorables jumped that high based on bad press and the DGA’s ads.  According to the poll, almost every voter who used to have no opinion about Kasich, but do now, has a negative one.

When you realize that 10% of the registered voters in Ohio who say they support John Kasich must be voters who have no opinion of him (because he gets nearly ten points higher in the head-to-head than those who have a favorable opinion of him), you realize that increasing Kasich’s negatives among the undecideds can cut into his support and eventually may even widen the lead.  It shows that Kasich’s support is soft as it’s based on nothing about Kasich as a candidate.

I think the groups running the ads against Kasich should pivot to the tax plan now as I think they’ve done as much damage to Kasich’s unfavorability ratings their going to get using Lehman Brothers.

Kasich, I believe, needs a fuzzy puppy, positive bio ad up ASAP to stop this bleeding.  Ken Blackwell didn’t lose because of Bob Taft or George W. Bush.  Ken Blackwell lost because his unfavorability rating that was higher than his favorability rating.  Kasich’s favorability rating is essentially the same as Blackwell’s favorability rating was in Sept. 2006.  Kasich’s unfavorability rating is thirteen points below what Blackwell’s was in September.  All it takes is another month like Kasich has and he’s in Blackwell territory.

The other movement is a five point change among registered voters attitudes towards how things are going in Ohio today.  5% of voters went from very dissatisfied to somewhat dissatisfied.  This shows that an improving labor market is softening voters attitudes.  A person who is somewhat dissatisfied with how things are going in Ohio can be persuaded to vote for Governor Strickland.  However, one who is very dissatisfied cannot.

Both of these are red flags that if the these trends continue we will eventually see this stalemate start to uncrumble to Strickland’s favor.  Maybe the stalemate continues until November, but I’m hearing some cracking deep in the ice that would seem to break in Strickland’s favor.

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