As you may have seen on our Twitter feedPublic Policy Polling, a Democratic polling organization, also released a poll today on the Ohio governor’s race.

Not surprising, the poll shows the race statistically tied.  However, back in March, PPP showed Kasich with a five-point lead.

Here are some notable figures from the PPP poll:

  • Since March, the number of undecideds in the race dropped by five points.  Strickland gained four points in the head-to-head.  That means that Strickland largely gained from people coming off the fence as Kasich’s numbers stayed flat.  A trend that goes against the “conventional wisdom” about the race.
  • While Strickland’s approval rating (according to PPP which shows a result drastically different from the Ohio Poll) among independents is still bad, Strickland saw his approval ratings with Independents improve by eight points while his disapproval rating among independents dropped seven points.  That’s a large swing in only a few months before the campaign has truly begun in earnest.
  • Strickland’s approval rating with Democrats also gained eight points.
  • In a head to head matchup, Strickland approved his standing with male voters eight points.  Kasich lost three points with male voters.  That turned an eleven point advantage with male voters into a statistical tie.  NRA endorsement matters.
  • Kasich’s unfavorability ratings is slightly (but statistically insignificantly) higher than his favorability rating.  This is mostly because of an 11-point jump of his unfavorability rating among Democratic voters (behold the power of PLUNDERBUND!!!)
  • The level of voters who have no opinion has actually increased from a year ago. In June 2009, PPP said only 39% had no opinion of Kasich.  41% in June 2010 say that have no opinion.  Even if you dismiss this as within the margin, that means Kasich has done nothing to introduce himself to voters in a year since “officially” announcing his candidacy.
  • Like the Ohio Poll, PPP shows Strickland with a large lead among voters 65 and older—the most reliable voting demographic.

In the end, this is yet another poll showing Strickland having momentum and Kasich treading water.  The only movement in these polls are two-fold: negative for Kasich, positive for Strickland.

While there are troubling numbers in the PPP, underneath the surface PPP is yet another poll showing the political environment significantly improving to Strickland’s favor.

Lots of work to be done in the next four months.

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