I largely agree with Modern’s take on Lee’s ad buy – if you have to put ads up in your base county, which happens to be the most expensive media market, at the expense of other markets where you are less known, you got trouble.
Additionally, where’s all that big money Lee raised?? Remember the core of the “inevitable Lee” argument?? Money.? Well, Lee is only going to be on the air for basically two weeks before the primary – I don’t include a weekend buy in those two weeks, it’s almost a waste of money to begin your ad spend on a weekend.?? For a guy who claims he’s Mr. Money Bags, two weeks on the air is a pittance.
The 1994 Hyatt-Boyle dynamic is taking hold in the Democratic Party electorate in 2010, and there is no stopping it now.? Lee Fisher has not closed the sale, has run a joke of a campaign, and Jennifer Brunner is sitting there waiting to greet Democratic primary voters desperate to support a real, honest to goodness Democrat. In 1994, Joel Hyatt barely survived this dynamic by less than 2 points, and Lee is underperforming compared to Hyatt at this point in the campaign.
The only question is whether or not the Brunner campaign can push this dynamic far enough to get over 50%.? It’s there for the taking.? Every single thing about this race that this blog has predicted has come to pass, with one exception – the Brunner campaign has yet to take off in online fundraising. DFA just endorsed Brunner – that may help.? Emily’s List, incredibly, is AWOL.? If Emily’s List can’t come into this race now to raise money for Jennifer Brunner, what the hell is Emily’s List for?
It’s all in their hands now.? Can the Brunner campaign capitalize?? We’ll soon find out.