Because the Carpetblogger lives in Virginia, the only measure he’s got for how the gubernatorial race is going is polling.? He’s absolutely obsessed with polls and distilling them into the most pro-Kasich spin possible.
It’s gotten so sad, that both this site and BSB has turned watching Keeling spinning into a spectator sport.
This morning, Keeling didn’t disappoint:
I guess my supposition about the poll trends from yesterday was more accurate than I expected:
Yes, November is a long ways away. I’m sure we’ll see these lines cross back and forth across each other a few times. After all, it is Ohio.
That’s Keeling using something he said to dismiss the most recent Qunnipiac poll this week to now dismiss, yet another poll, this time from Rasmussen (R) which shows the same thing as the Quinnipiac Poll.? Keeling wants points for repeating the same spin to dismiss two bad polls simply for being consistent (lately.)
The problem is that before yesterday, Keeling never predicted that the polls would switch back and forth before November.? Quite the opposite.? Just a few weeks ago, Keeling said that Strickland was already toast.
Of course, back then he also dismissed the multiple findings that Independents have been drifting away from the Republican camp and back into the Democratic camp.? A trend that the polls this week confirmed is accelerating.
Before he decided to spin that Quinnpiac was unreliable, he was citing it as evidence of Ohio voters believing that Kasich was better on the budget and the economy.? It must be a total coincidence that Keeling stopped believing in Qunnipiac only once their polls stopped making those findings.
Keeling likes to make a big deal about Strickland’s approval/disapproval rating, and yet, he conveniently ignores that it’s now at a statistical tie and has a clear trend favoring Strickland’s approval rating, especially among Independents.? This is before ODP or the Strickland campaign has began any paid media campaign against Kasich.
Could things reverse again between now and November?? Absolutely, but it’s impossible, even for Keeling, to ignore the reality that Kasich’s poll position against Strickland has trended to Strickland’s favor since December.
Furthermore, Keeling is being to myopic (probably by choice) in his analysis.? What he has entirely glossed over is that from the President on down there has been a decided Democratic undercurrent that has zapped the energy of the Republican tide everyone had been predicting.?? The improvement in the polls is not just statistical noise related to one race, but a broad ideological trend statewide.
Then again, if my candidate just saw a double-digit lead evaporate overnight, I guess I too would want to pretend it meant nothing, too.