As most of my readers know, I’ve worked for Labour every general election in the UK since 1997.? This year’s election will be the first since Tony Blair came to power that I’m not in Old Blighty.? So I’m starting to pay attention from afar.
The likely election date will be first week of June.? The Tories seemed headed for landslide victory for much of this parliament, but now, it looks like there is at least as good a chance of a hung parliament.? Here’s the poll tracker I’ll be following.
What’s a hung parliament, you ask?? Well, it means no party has enough seats to form a government on their own, i.e., an absolute majority.? If that is the result, the queen asks the sitting prime minister to form a coalition government, which means Gordon Brown has to try to form a coalition with other parties, most likely the Lib Dems.? That will get crazy.? Not gonna get into it now, too complicated.
So my take at the moment is that I’m beginning to watch closely.? Well, at least as closely as I can, given that I’m crazy busy.? Of course, I’m pulling for Labour.? Lots of friends (still) in the party, and the Tories are just as poisonous to the general welfare of society in the UK as Republicans are in the US. If Labour pulls off an upset victory, that will be very big news, indeed.? British voters have a cycle – this point in the current Labour-dominated cycle is about the point they throw the bums out.? If they don’t, it may be an indicator for our side of the pond…may.
If the Tories do win, it will end a 13 year Labour era. Thatcher’s Tories governed for 18 years.? In the last election before Labour took over, 1992, the polls were very similar, showing Labour cruising.? It didn’t happen for Labour in 1992, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tories start counting chickens which end up failing to hatch.
More to come.