At some point, the dollar signs which Lee incessantly throws in everyone?s face will start to dwindle. ?Lee came out with a bang, and in the next quarter, his numbers dropped. ?Next quarter, they?ll drop some more. ?And then the next. ?By the end of 2009, Lee will be on a precipitous glide path. ?The proverbial wad has been shot.
Brunner, however, because of her performance in 2008, has a message that has already taken hold in the national blogosphere. ?She is a hero for national progressives. ?They?ve already got her back. ?My guess is that by December, national progressives online will take a long hard look at what a Fisher loss to Portman in 2010 will mean for Barack Obama in 2012, and Brunner?s online haul will ignite. ?There is no worse story line for Barack out of Ohio in 2010 than that a BUSH ADMINISTRATION TRADE OFFICIAL won the Ohio Senate seat. ?Once national progressives take their look, they will start pushing Brunner. ?Hard.
That December “long hard look” happened, and now, it’s taking hold. ?The problem with a campaign relying on viral online mojo is that this viral nature is unpredictable. ?At the risk of patting myself on the back too hard, you can’t predict it any better than I did in July. ?But it wasn’t that hard to predict – Brunner’s campaign is on the launch pad in February precisely as anyone with a brain would expect it to be, and precisely as it needs to be for Brunner to win.
In the meantime, Lee Fisher has spent about $1 million, and has gone nowhere. ?This is how Lee Fisher always campaigns – he raises a lot of money, then proceeds to flush it down the toilet. ?Lee hasn’t even filed yet – a lot of his money is being spent on paid staff to collect those signatures. ?Where the rest of the money has gone, who knows, but it hasn’t led to any traction on the ground, or movement in the polls. ?Lee is either treading water or going backward.
So here’s another prediction. ?If this momentum online continues for Brunner, and there’s no reason to think it won’t, by the end of March, she will be at fundraising parity with Fisher. ?To continue the momentum, Jennifer needs to keep pushing online, and start taking visible shots at Republicans.
Sarah Palin is teed up for Jennifer – I can imagine Jennifer on MSNBC saying that Palin is putting the cause of women in politics back a generation by embodying every stereotype imaginable by using a cheat sheet written on her hand like she’s a cheerleader needing to be reminded of the word “spirit”, cue the school cheer. ?It’s laughable, and perfect for Jennifer to punch.
Thank God Jennifer Brunner filed for this US Senate seat.